Model Runs See More Rains

Corn – Will BRA tax headlines add support for a 2nd day? Maps add rain and still look very solid

↔ We will see if the BRA tax headline is able to add support for a 2nd day, it is honestly tough to know how far trade will react when we are far from knowing what real change this will bring

↔ There was talk yesterday saw fund short covering but OI down 1K does not support that thought

↑ Exports were strong yesterday at 1318K, this was a strong week for both ethanol/exports

↓ Weather maps continue to suggest regular rains for most areas other than eastern growing areas, temps are average to slightly below average, the type of forecast most traders will see as bearish

Beans – Overnight easing from BRA tax reaction, very tough to know yet what impact it will have

↓ Overnight cooling off from the moderate bounce seen on BRA tax headlines from yesterday

↔ Companies in BRA are working to figure out the impact of the new tax system so it is far from clear to a US trader what this will all mean, most conversation around this issue remains highly speculative

↔ The first question to watch for is: Will the new tax program slow BRA exports short term?

↓ Weekly exports on yesterday’s report were poor at 263K with the old crop portion at a low 190K

↔ First resistance for July is right at yesterday’s high of 1204 ½, support is around the 1150 area

Wheat – Trade expected a disaster announcement from Russia by now, harvest pressure continues

↓ Trade expected to hear a disaster statement from Russia by now but so far this week most headlines have been calming including the Putin statement that exports would not be affected

↓ Harvest pressure continues and expectations for yields remains high

↔ Moderate rains move into HRW areas in the 1 – 5 day which may slow harvest, not yet concerning

Cattle – Cash bids eased back further yesterday with TX bidding $1.50 lower, BB still grinding higher

↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +1.42 Select -0.07 packer BE at 195.91, packer cushion $9.38

↓ Packer bids in TX were $1.50 under last week’s trade, lower than the -$0.50 bid in NE

↑ Due to a recent setback many may feel that BB is setting back but as a whole it remains on a 4 week grind higher, CH + SEL is at 617 which is a strong level, packer profits are still over $9

↔ Weights are still a potential issue, they fell 1 lb but that is still a slower setback than normal and now weights are now 37 lbs over last year and over normal levels for this time of year

↔ Yesterday’s 4th bird flu headline caught trade attention right on the open but by the end of the day

cattle were just moderately lower, bird flu headlines will see less reaction unless something new is seen