Weekly ethanol production has taken a different turn for now four weeks.

Nationwide corn planting advanced from 27% complete to now 36% over the past week. That was under the 39% trade expectation. It was also important was we now moved below the 39% five year average pace.

Corn sees two weeks of buying

For South America our main focus is the developing second crop of corn. From planting through the vegetative growth stage, January through mid-March, rains were -37% from normal. Mid-March to current rains, pollination to early kernel fill, have run -5% from normal. However, it must be noted the past two weeks with that seven-week count were problems at -60% and -71% from normal. The two-week forecast suggests this drier pattern to continue.

In February and early-March Allendale discussed the differentiation in basis between heavy supply years and tight supply years. In heavy supply years basis typically does not continue gains into summer that were noted in the spring. Given a potential sideways basis, and high interest rates this would suggest a potential need to move old crop cash corn and soybeans and conduct paper re-ownership if supportive price views are still held.

The Department of Labor's monthly employment report showed only 175,000 jobs added to non-farm payrolls in April. That was under the 243,000 trade expectation. It is also the lowest job gain in six months.

Weekly Actual Slaughter this morning detailed meat production statistics for the third week of April.

Beef export sales of 22,468 tonnes were reported. This was +12% from last year. Year to date bookings are -6% from last year. That is currently ahead of USDA’s whole-year goal of -8%.

USDA reported -20,298 tonnes for last week’s wheat export sales activity. The trade estimate was -100,000 to +100,000.

USDA’s 1.700 billion bushel soybean export estimate is -14% from the five year average sale. Year to date sales are currently -17% from average. To meet USDA’s goal the remaining weeks through August need to improve to +38% from average. Of the past 15 weeks, including this week, 13 have been below the needed amount.

USDA’s current 2.100 billion bushel goal for the year would be -2% from the five year average pace. Our year to date sales are -5% from average. To meet USDA’s goal remaining sales need to run +36% vs. the five year average. Though last week was positive at +115%, the general period of recent sales including this week have been under the needed pace. If sales “improve” to even with last year we'll miss USDA's goal by 55 million bushels.

In most cases USDA's monthly report on soybean crushing does not get much interest. NOPA already released their numbers for March. But we've seen NOPA and USDA numbers diverge a little recently. That was seen again today.

USDA reported corn used in the nation's ethanol plants in March at 469 million bushels. This was a sharp clip at +7.5% from last year. This brings the September - March corn use to 3.187 billion. That would be +6.8%. We are currently ahead of USDA's whole-year goal of 5.400 billion bushels. That would require the rest of the year to run only +1.0%. That sounds like an easy target but keep in mind two of the last three weeks of ethanol production were below that amount.

Ethanol production this past week was 987,000 barrels per day. This was +1.1% from last year.

Here's a look at the trading range, high to low, from January 1 to expiration.

Nationwide corn planting advanced from 12% complete to now 27% over the past week. That was on the trade expectation. This number is over the 22% complete past from the average of the prior five years. We assume planting may slip back to near average levels by the coming May 10 WASDE report. While April's early planting gets some trade attention the real focus is this week and the next two.

Best week of Managed Money buying in corn in 20 weeks.

Rainfall from planting through vegetative growth, January through mid-March, was -37% from normal for the main four producers of Brazil's second crop of corn.

The weekly Actual Slaughter report detailed meat production statistics for the second week of April.

Beef export sales of 15,210 tonnes were reported. This was 60% from last year. Year to date bookings are -7% from last year. That is below USDA’s whole-year goal of -8%.

Sales of 210,899 tonnes were reported for soybeans. The trade estimate was 300,000 – 600,000.

Weekly export sales today cover Fri 4/12 – Thu 4/18 activity.

This is Brazil's seasonal low for corn shipping. The US holds a price advantage for near term delivery. Considering Brazil's shipping advantage anything for extended delivery would be considered at parity.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its first estimate of economic activity for the completed Q1 Jan - Mar period. Gross Domestic Product for Q1 was estimated at +1.6% year over year. That was under the trade's +2.4% expectation. It is the lowest gain in activity in seven quarters.

They counted 432.2 million lbs. of beef in the nation's frozen warehouses at the end of March. This was -15 million from the prior month. The five year average decline was -13. Given that our slaughter was quite low in March (supplies offered) we would have expected a larger monthly drop than this.