The latest monthly Cold Storage report counted 410.3 million lbs. of beef in frozen warehouses at the end of June. That was -11 million from the prior month. This was a steeper drop than the five year average of -5 for that month. Given lower production, that is reasonable and likely not market moving.

Light fund short covering may be continuing, strong exports, active resistance in the 420s

Today's weekly release of the Actual Slaughter report detailed meat production statistics for the second week of July.

Weekly beef export sales came to 13,383 tonnes last week. This was -37% vs. last year. Year to date sales are -7% vs. last year. Sales are on USDA's current goal of -7%. However, it must be noted the recent trend of -37%, -26% the week before and -16% the week before are lightly concerning.

309,319 tonnes were sold in this week. The trade estimate was 300,000 - 625,000.

With shipping included Brazil generally has a price advantage for both old and new crop delivery.

Weekly export sales today cover Fri 7/12 – Thu 7/18 activity. For near term delivery, with shipping included, the US and Brazil are near parity. For new crop the US has an advantage.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its first estimate for the completed Q2 this morning. This will be revised again on August 29 and September 26.

The first three quarters of corn for ethanol usage came to 4.066 billion bushels, +6.0% from last year. To meet USDA's current 5.450 billion whole-year goal this fourth quarter needs to run 1.384 billion, +3.3% from last year. Given the fact this year's production efficiency is lower than last year we estimate actual ethanol production only needs to run +2.0% from last year in this quarter. That is our goal for these weekly ethanol reports in Q4, +2.0%.

Cattle on Feed would be called bullish. June placements, feeders and calves entering feedlots, were counted at 1.564 million head. That was a full -6.8% from last year. The trade estimate was -2.8% (ALDL -3.7%). This 1.564 million head inflow would be the smallest in eight years.

Dressed steer weights rose +6 lbs. this week to 847. Dressed heifers were +5 lbs. to 916. This is a time of seasonally rising weights. Last year in this week they rose even more. That helped bring down the year over year overages again. Steers are running +24 lbs. vs. last year while heifers are +22.

Earlier this year Allendale released a study covering the general trading range that December corn and November soybeans see each year. Running from January 1 to expiration, simply looking at the high and the low, we used it to speculate on potential downside for 2024.

Weekly beef export sales came to 15,401 tonnes last week. This was -26% vs. last year. Year to date sales are -6% vs. last year. Sales are just over USDA's current goal of -7%.

USDA’s 825 million bushel new crop export goal, for the year that started June 1, is -4% from the five year average sale. Year to date sales are +9% vs. average. To meet USDA's goal remaining sales can fall to -4% vs. average through next May. Today's sale was -2% vs. average. If remaining sales are even with the average we'll exceed USDA's goal by 25 million bushels.

Brazil generally has a price advantage for both old and new crop delivery.

Weekly export sales today cover Fri 7/12 – Thu 7/18 activity. For near term delivery, with shipping included, Brazil has a price advantage. For extended delivery we are near parity.

The first three quarters of corn for ethanol usage came to 4.066 billion bushels, +6.0% from last year. To meet USDA's current 5.450 billion whole-year goal this fourth quarter needs to run 1.384 billion, +3.3% from last year. Given the fact this year's production efficiency is lower than last year we estimate actual ethanol production only needs to run +2.0% from last year in this quarter. That is our goal for these weekly ethanol reports in Q4, +2.0%.

Corn ratings were unchanged in the latest week, 68% good/excellent. The trade expected +1% to 69%. This current rating is tied for 18th best out of 38 prior years of ratings.

Today’s report will show a large corn carryout due to the added acreage from the June 28th report.

Weekly beef export sales came to 8,348 tonnes last week. This was -16% vs. last year. Year to date sales are -5% vs. last year. Sales are just over USDA's current goal of -7%.

USDA’s 775 million bushel new crop export goal, for the year that started June 1, is -6% from the five year average sale. Year to date sales are +10% vs. average. To meet USDA's goal we only need to run -13% vs. average through next May. Today's sale was a low week at -25% vs. average. We do not expect this negative week to continue. It is quite early in the year to take a strong stance on exports but so far, we are ahead.

Brazil still has a price advantage for old crop shipments. Extended delivery pricing is now mixed.

Weekly export sales today cover Fri 6/28 – Thu 7/11 activity. Including Brazil's shipping advantage export pricing is near parity with the US in the short term. It is important to note the US advantage has now widened for further out. This is quite positive.

Today's weekly release of the Actual Slaughter report detailed meat production statistics for the last week of June.

The monthly report on retail level pricing, the Consumer Price Index, showed a decline from May's +3.3% year over year growth to now +3.0%. The trade expected +3.0%. This help convince the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates sooner than expected. At this time the market believes they will lower in both September and December.