Weekly beef export sales came to 16,529 tonnes last week. This was +38% vs. last year. Year to date sales are -3% vs. last year. Sales are on USDA's current goal of -3%.

Wheat export sales this past week were 340,032 tonnes. The trade estimate was 300,000 - 600,000.

Weekly export sales today cover activity through 8/29. There are two days left of data for the old crop marketing year. Current old crop shipments come to 1.632 million bushels. The five year average FAS shipment to WASDE export number is +43 million bushels.

Weekly export sales today cover Fri 8/23 – Thu 8/29 activity. There are just two days left of data to complete the old crop marketing year. Year to date FAS corn shipments total 2.126 billion bushels. There is a five year average positive difference between FAS exports and WASDE exports.

The Department of Labor reported non-farm payrolls in August grew by 142,000. That was below the 160,000 expectation.

The weekly Actual Slaughter report detailed meat production statistics for the third week of August.

September - July corn for ethanol usage has totaled 4.988 billion bushels. To meet USDA's current 5.450 billion whole-year goal August usage needs to run 462 million bushels, +4.7%.

Corn ratings were unchanged from the prior week at 65% good/excellent. The trade expected a 1% decline to 64%. For this week corn is rated as #15 out of 38 years.

USDA's monthly soybean crush report, covering July activity, ran 193.5 million bushels. That was +4.7% from one year ago. In most years USDA's report is considered a little dated. NOPA already released its report for July. T

USDA's monthly corn for ethanol report, covering July activity, was positive at 474 million bushels. That was +4.0% from one year ago. It offsets a weak June usage. Year to date usage, September - July, now runs 4.988 billion bushels. We are closing on USDA's whole-year goal of 5.450 billion.

Concerns over both beef demand and offered fed cattle supplies for the months ahead remain clear issues. Though the trade does not expect a V type bottom for these markets, we are stabilizing.

Last week’s 0.2 – 0.4 inch rains for the three main Center/West states in Brazil was far under the 1.5 – 1.7 normally seen for that week. After moderate rains this week they will return back to dry conditions next week. The Southern states will continue with unneeded above normal rainfall. There is a light, valid, production hit to expect from weather to this point. The trade is lightly pricing additional premium based on the potential for no improvement in weather in the months ahead when reproduction hits.

Concerns over both beef demand and offered fed cattle supplies for the months ahead remain clear issues. Though the trade does not expect a V type bottom for these markets, we are stabilizing.

Yesterday's scattered rains in Brazil's Center/West region brought 0.4 to 1.4 inch to much of the secondary states of Goais and Mato Grosso do Sul. The main state, Mato Grosso, saw that amount only in the lower ⅓.

he last weekly Crop Progress report of the year showed winter wheat ratings as of Sunday +2% from last week. Now at 50% good/excellent, this is the best rating for this week in four years. In the market's view, this 2023 fall planted crop, for harvest summer 2024 is differentiating itself from recent poor years. USDA will restart weekly ratings for this crop after winter dormancy ends on April 1. This is bearish psychologically

KC wheat barely edged out a new downtrend low in today's session. All three contracts made new long term downtrend lows yesterday. In today's day session all three posted a moderate rally on concerns over Russian exports in the months ahead.

After pushing to new downtrend lows in the morning futures were able to rebound to a higher close. Today's higher close is the first among a five day slide. From the 11/20 close to today's lows the February contract has removed -9.25 in value.

Hog futures posted a second positive close. Prices are now nearing the upside gap left three days ago. It is also nearing the 50% retracement point of this general 11/17 to 11/28 price break, 71.80. The market continues to debate a seasonal winter low.

Ehanol production last week, 1.011 million barrels per day, was -0.7% from one year ago. Our year to date pace is still strong, +4.6% from one year ago. However, that is mainly due to the lack of seasonal downtime in September. USDA's current corn for ethanol goal, 5.325 billion bushels, would be +2.9% from last year. To meet USDA's goal the remainder of the year needs to run +2.4% from last year through August.

New lows for the general downtrend were reported. The needed move to fill the intraday gap at the 11/27 close was seen. The trade kept dropping after the gap fill. The close was near the low of the day. The general bear market remains in place.

As with the theme from last week, soybeans are trading much worse than fundamental news would suggest. Today's trade, helped by the news of a fire at a smaller US crush plant, posted its lowest close since 10/26. This market has broken its uptrend and has retraced more than 50% of the prior two month rally.

A second China purchase of US wheat allowed for light gains. Over six sessions Chicago has added 75 cents from its latest new downtrend lows. Current pricing is the best in two months. KC is up 67 ¾ cents from its recent downtrend lows. Current pricing is the best in one month. Along with light discussions of perhaps a changing Russian narrative, the trade is wondering if a long awaited bottom for this 18 month long downtrend may finally be showing.

A gap lower today has now added another upside discussion for the chart. These upside gaps may be discussion points after cash markets post their seasonal lows. Considering the general concerns over a recession, Prop 12 on January 1 and Chinese news this US lean hog futures market is doing okay. February has not broken the 50% retracement at 71.80 but it would be hard to suggest we should at this point in December.

Hog futures are exploring lower prices but not finding much volume. Given we are not yet seeing a clear bottom for the seasonal cash market break we cannot say futures have to rally just yet.

A third China buy helped spike US wheat futures. The market was unable to hold this higher trade into the close. In this week's AgLeaders update Allendale will start a conversation of a changing price narrative for US wheat futures. This has been a relentless 18 month downtrend. A change in interest rates in 2024, perhaps a changing Russian export narrative and now Chinese buying are newer developments.