Exports were disappointing yesterday at 947K, on a fundamental basis one poor week is not a major,event but we know traders have been cautious of an export slow down so some easing is expected
Continue reading →Just as we have seen the previous 5 weeks, traders are leaving price at a level that assumes poorexports of 1000K or lower
Continue reading →Some major questions trade is likely to have: Can the export new export goal be reached? While notas difficult, can the new ethanol goal be reached? 2 questions which may limit a move towards 470
Continue reading →Going into this report corn is priced at a level that assumes a small carryout decline which is expectedtoday. Beans are still trading a carryout number a fair amount higher than 0.469 and wheat is inbetween those two priced slightly low but not as drastic as beans.
Continue reading →The pre report buying is likely to remain small as the expected carryout change is only likely to movefair value from 440 up to around 445
Continue reading →We may see some light pre buying of Tuesday’s report but most traders are still avoiding anything aggressively long for fear of what may happen to exports after Jan 20th
Continue reading →We may see some light pre buying of Tuesday’s report but most traders are still avoiding anything aggressively long for fear of what may happen to exports after Jan 20th
Continue reading →We may still see pre report buying ahead of Tuesday but without seeing at least some 8 AM sales that bounce might be limited, trade’s largest concern right now is exports slowing
Continue reading →As soon as Euro markets opened last night all grains saw a new round of pressure, possibly fearingtariffs again but there wasn’t much in fresh tariff news yesterday/last night
Continue reading →March at 430 holds this market again, Dec crop report a week away and may be supportive
Continue reading →As with corn the tariff headline threat will have less effect over time and especially so if currentexports continue strong but for now we should link the word “tariff” with “slightly bearish reaction
Continue reading →Just like corn, trade is likely to remain cautious even on seeing strong exports as most are concerned about upcoming tariff increases to China which may slow their buying pace down the road
Continue reading →Next month’s December crop report won’t likely make many changes but could serve as a reminder how under priced corn/beans are right now, it could be lightly supportive without changing anything
Continue reading →After yesterday’s active selling a small technical bounce was seen, likely aided by not seeing the dollar move higher last night, March CHI can bounce to 571 ¾ and still hold the downtrend line
Continue reading →It may seem hard to believe but fair value for Jan is still 1035 and exports have not slowed enough to change that level, this means all that is needed for a moderate recovery is export fear to ease
Continue reading →After running to 2 year highs, palm oil is now easing back from those highs which in turn is causing bean oil to ease back and that may be one of the reasons for the recent weakness in bean trade
Continue reading →If fear selling in beans spills over pressure to corn again it is likely we will find both speculative buying as well as improvement in exports at March levels around 430
Continue reading →There has not been an 8 AM sales announcement for corn since Wednesday, normally that would not be too concerning but with trade fearful of an export slowdown it could cause pressure soon
Continue reading →March has returned to the 440 fair value level, now the question is if exports can remain strong to suggest moving that fair value level slightly higher due to USDA raising exports
Continue reading →Overnight continues the pattern of pessimistic export expectations, after seeing last week’s exports at a moderate level we will see if this light selling continues after 8:30
Continue reading →Overall demand remains very strong for corn, the USDA has figures factored in that suggests it will slow eventually but for now both exports and ethanol are above USDA expectations
Continue reading →8 AM sales continue, ethanol expected strong again today, less spill over weight from beans
Continue reading →BB lower again after a 1 day bounce (like we saw last week), packer profits at a dismal sub $0 level
Continue reading →Yesterday there were no gov’t reports so we didn’t see any 8 AM sales but overnight traders seem to still be highly concerned that the Trump victory will mean an instant slowdown of Chinese buying
Continue reading →Funds buy 40K, now long 22K or 5% of record, too early to tell if they plan to build a long position
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