Signs fund buying continues but is slowing, the path to 520 may slow drastically without them

Signs fund buying continues but is slowing, the path to 520 may slow drastically without them

January 23, 2025

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Daily Market Report

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Latest Updates

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Signs fund buying continues but is slowing, the path to 520 may slow drastically without them

Signs fund buying continues but is slowing, the path to 520 may slow drastically without them

January 23, 2025

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Another sign of fund buying yesterday, following beans slightly last night

January 22, 2025

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No new tariffs announced, funds continue to buy, little to hold corn back from fair value now

January 21, 2025

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Corn Reluctant to move lower possibly from continued fund buying, tariffs not as threatening corn

Morning 10 day SA precip – ARG and southern BRA still see a forecast for rainfall improvements from days 7 to further out.

January 17, 2025

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January 2025 Cattle on Feed Estimates

The following are our estimates for the coming Cattle on Feed report.

January 16, 2025

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Ethanol moderate, exports expected moderate/poor, some end of week selling possible

Ethanol moderate, exports expected moderate/poor, some end of week selling possible

January 16, 2025

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Ethanol expected strong again today, open interest spiking higher suggesting fund buying

Ethanol will be expected strong again on today’s report, likely close to last week’s 1102K

January 15, 2025

Daily Market Report

Livestock

Another new high for Live and feeder cattle futures. February and April have broken the psychological 200.00 mark. Yesterday Trump implied import tariffs would start on February 1. This could further tighten the US cattle market. This comes on top of the momentum already in place for the still-closed Mexican border. Of interest, today's rally ignored two new lightly bearish stories. Above normal temperatures are directly ahead. Additionally, wholesale beef is actually lower for the week. Until we get firm confirmation of a border re-opening plan from government officials bulls remain in control.

Wheat

Wheat is off its recent major lows but has yet to see reason for a sustained rally. Trump has confirmed tariffs ahead and the market still sees his policy as positive for the US dollar, bearish for wheat. Bulls are waiting to see some type of consistent change to US export sales before they believe the positive old crop competition story is in hand. Estimates for tomorrow's weekly US report suggest it is not here yet. There is still concern over new crop moisture forecasts for Russia, Ukraine and the US. It is not time to trade that concern though.

Soybean

New uptrend highs and the second best close of the uptrend were noted. This comes despite an improved Argentine forecast. Trump confirmed tariffs for February 1. Positive for soybeans, the China tariff appears to be small. The general soybean narrative has moderately changed. There is still plenty of concern still ahead over potential cancellations though. We are now allowing soybean futures up to $10.50. That includes an 80 cent trade risk discount. That was filled and we consider soybeans “at value”. We may consider soybeans a value if $10.00 futures is tested. There is a gap waiting at $10.34.

Corn

New uptrend highs and the second best close of the uptrend were noted. Weekly ethanol production was positive. On the other hand the Argentine forecast was improved. We have confirmed a long term change from perceptions of a heavy supply year to now a normal supply year. We are now allowing corn futures up to $5.00. That projection includes a 60 cent trade risk discount.

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