Corn – Temperatures not quite as hot this morning/still solid rains, some think funds covering shorts
↓ Morning maps are not as hot as yesterday and there are still solid rains to follow heat waves
↔Some are saying that the support yesterday came from fund short covering but we did not see the normal volume spikes associated with that and open interest was +9K, neither suggest fund buying
↔It is more likely that support came from lighter weather buying and not seeing much resistance as speculators and hedgers are likely aiming to sell July closer to 470 and December around 490
↔Exports slowed slightly yesterday at 1138K but are still at a solid moderate level
Beans – Cooler forecast, seeing 8 AM sales but trade may have expected more, weekly sales moderate
↓ Weather is still the #1 guide for trade and maps this morning don’t have as much heat as yesterday
↔We have seen 4 different 8 AM sales reports but each has been smaller than trade expected
↔The 8 AM sales will help more if we continue to see a regular string of them together or larger size
↔Weekly sales were moderate at 380K but again, it is likely trade was looking for 500K or more
↔Watch the active tropical storm season, if it brings heavy rain to the Delta it could add support
Wheat – Fund selling looks to have stopped, seeing more choppy trade, still expect harvest pressure
↔Recent trade has not shown signs of fund selling which was a key factor in the recent fast setback
↓ We should still expect regular light harvest pressure until harvest reaches 75%
↔KC may be more tied to harvest pressure while CHI sees influence from corn and speculative trade
↔As active as rains are on the 10 day maps, they are not as heavy over KS to allow active harvest pace
Cattle – Cash trades this week in NE have ranged from 190 to 195, BB still grinding higher
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +0.71 Select +0.32 packer BE at 196.08, packer cushion $10.95
↑ Cash trades were much stronger than expected yesterday reaching a high of 195 in NE, given that cash trades started at 190 we need to assume the average for the week will be around $2.50 higher
↔At the end of yesterday’s trade futures had priced in exactly $2.50 higher, cash/futures in line
↔Boxed beef bounced enough to take packer profits to 5 month highs and sure enough, we see a higher cash trade on a +25K showlist week, once again proving that BB is #1 above all other factors
↔Cattle weights added 4 lbs again, now offsetting 3.8% of lost production from lower numbers, now the guesstimate would be 1.2% lower production which is supportive but at a slow pace