Market Movers: USDA Report Day

At the end of September USDA issues two reports, quarterly Grain Stocks and the annual Small Grains Summary. The Grain Stocks report is a count of old crop remaining as of September 1. For corn and soybeans this puts the stamp on official ending stocks for the completed 2023/24 marketing year. USDA’s prior view, carried on the monthly supply/demand report, had been an estimate. Also on this report, USDA issues revised 2023 fall production. For wheat, September 1 stocks represent old crop remaining after one quarter of use. There were 56,000 producers and 8,000 commercial grain facilities surveyed for Grain Stocks. The second report, Small Grains Summary, revises official production for wheat, barley, oats and rye. Surveys from 56,000 producers across 10 states were conducted.  

‍Corn: 2023/24: Old crop US corn ending stocks were finalized at 1.760 billion bushels. USDA’s prior 9/12 estimate was 1.812. The trade had expected an increase to 1.844 (ALDL 1.822). Today’s report lowered the prior stock estimate by 52 million bushels. For the fifth year in a row USDA has also included a revision of the prior fall harvest. That was lowered by a minimal 1 million bushel to now 15.341 billion. The coming October 11 supply/demand report will show a detailed view of USDA’s revised import and demand numbers for old crop. For corn, with good known demand for corn for ethanol and crush today’s report helps fill in the blank for Q4 feed/residual.  

‍2024/25: There were no new crop numbers in today’s Grain Stocks report, only old crop stocks and revised prior year production. Today’s report simply lowers the beginning stock estimate for new crop by 52 million bushels. Though this will not be enough to change the general narrative of a year over year supply increase, it does trim numbers. Before assuming any further changes for the coming October 11 supply/demand it would lower new crop stocks from 2.057 billion bushels to 2.005. View Market Outlook For Pricing Updates

‍Soybeans: 2023/24: Old crop US soybean ending stocks were finalized at 342 million bushels. The trade estimate was 351 (ALDL 359). USDA’s prior estimate from September 12 was 340. For 20 years USDA has also included a revision to the prior fall harvest on this report. Today’s revision was relatively minor at only 2 million to now 4.162 billion. The coming October 12 supply/demand report will show a detailed view of USDA’s revised import and unknown demand numbers for old crop.  

‍2024/25: There were no new crop numbers on today’s Grain Stocks report, only old crop changes. For its impact for new crop, this will start beginning stocks with a minimal 2 million increase. Assuming no other changes it would push stocks up from 550 million to 552. View Market Outlook For Pricing Updates

‍Wheat: 2024/25: The old crop marketing year for wheat ended on May 31. Both of today’s reports cover only new crop information. The Small Grains Summary lowered USDA’s new crop production view by 11 million bushels to 1.971 billion. The trade expected a decline to 1.766 (ALDL 1.993). USDA also released old crop stocks as of September 1. At 1.986 billion it was just over the 1.986 trade expectation (ALDL 2.015). Though there are clear concerns over winter wheat planting and likely 2025 production, the market remains pressured by still large near term exports from Russia and Ukraine.

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