Allendale, Inc. Releases Estimates for Upcoming WASDE Report

Weekly beef export sales came to 16,529 tonnes last week. This was +38% vs. last year. Year to date sales are -3% vs. last year. Sales are on USDA's current goal of -3%.

Wheat export sales this past week were 340,032 tonnes. The trade estimate was 300,000 - 600,000.

Weekly export sales today cover activity through 8/29. There are two days left of data for the old crop marketing year. Current old crop shipments come to 1.632 million bushels. The five year average FAS shipment to WASDE export number is +43 million bushels.

Weekly export sales today cover Fri 8/23 – Thu 8/29 activity. There are just two days left of data to complete the old crop marketing year. Year to date FAS corn shipments total 2.126 billion bushels. There is a five year average positive difference between FAS exports and WASDE exports.

The Department of Labor reported non-farm payrolls in August grew by 142,000. That was below the 160,000 expectation.

Disappointing cash trades of $1 to $2 lower, futures move right in line with that cash news

The weekly Actual Slaughter report detailed meat production statistics for the third week of August.

September - July corn for ethanol usage has totaled 4.988 billion bushels. To meet USDA's current 5.450 billion whole-year goal August usage needs to run 462 million bushels, +4.7%.

For the longest time on the 2024 setback trade wondered “what price level will start to see better exports?”, now we have found that level and need to ask “what price bounce will slow them again?”

GTE down 2% at 65%, still suggests higher than current yield, more 8 AM sales expected

Corn ratings were unchanged from the prior week at 65% good/excellent. The trade expected a 1% decline to 64%. For this week corn is rated as #15 out of 38 years.

USDA's monthly soybean crush report, covering July activity, ran 193.5 million bushels. That was +4.7% from one year ago. In most years USDA's report is considered a little dated. NOPA already released its report for July. T

USDA's monthly corn for ethanol report, covering July activity, was positive at 474 million bushels. That was +4.0% from one year ago. It offsets a weak June usage. Year to date usage, September - July, now runs 4.988 billion bushels. We are closing on USDA's whole-year goal of 5.450 billion.

Fund short covering continues but slowed, Friday’s COT report showed funds +16K, still short 242K

Concerns over both beef demand and offered fed cattle supplies for the months ahead remain clear issues. Though the trade does not expect a V type bottom for these markets, we are stabilizing.

Still following beans on a very small scale, March still trading the 483 to 495 range

Last week’s 0.2 – 0.4 inch rains for the three main Center/West states in Brazil was far under the 1.5 – 1.7 normally seen for that week. After moderate rains this week they will return back to dry conditions next week. The Southern states will continue with unneeded above normal rainfall. There is a light, valid, production hit to expect from weather to this point. The trade is lightly pricing additional premium based on the potential for no improvement in weather in the months ahead when reproduction hits.

Concerns over both beef demand and offered fed cattle supplies for the months ahead remain clear issues. Though the trade does not expect a V type bottom for these markets, we are stabilizing.

Yesterday's scattered rains in Brazil's Center/West region brought 0.4 to 1.4 inch to much of the secondary states of Goais and Mato Grosso do Sul. The main state, Mato Grosso, saw that amount only in the lower ⅓.