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Rain Makes Grain?

Weather maps not clear but also not a wash out, morning 10 day maps suggest planting should easily pass 75% on Monday which is the level trade switches over to a summer mindset (rain = grain)

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Planting Picks Up

Planting picked up pace at 70% compared to 71% ave, closer to average than seen last week

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Crop Progress suggests aggressive corn planting last week.

Nationwide corn planting advanced from 49% complete to now 70% over the past week. The expectation was 68%. This was quite an effort. It was the second best planting gain for that week in 11 years.

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Corn and soybean basis have widened.

The first two weeks of May generally show a wider divergence in basis between tight supply years and heavy supply years. In heavy supply years basis generally does not appreciate into the later part of the marketing year. That seems to be the case for 2024.

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Brazil's second crop corn areas remain dry.

Brazil's second crop corn areas have now returned to sharp moisture deficits for now four weeks in a row. Here's a table showing a simple average in inches.

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June Brings Acreage Talks

Funds bought 31K, now short 71K or 21% of record, trade likely to pre buy the acreage report

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Will wee see Friday buying ?

NOAA issued new 3 month outlooks yesterday which has slightly above average temps for most growing areas, heat to the far south and mostly normal rains over growing areas

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Five weeks in a row with cattle weights +3% year/year.

The weekly Actual Slaughter report this morning detailed meat production statistics for the first week of May.

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Climate Prediction Center's updated forecasts ease yield concern.

The general long term weather narrative for 2024 was one of above normal temperatures for all and below normal moisture during the summer for the Plains and much of the Western Cornbelt. This forecast had been in general agreement among government and private forecasters, with some moderate differences.

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Beef sales are on target. Pork sales remain at a deficit.

Beef export sales of 15,132 tonnes were reported. This was -13% from last year. Beef sales have been on a good run recently except for last week's -26% and this week's -13%. Year to date sales have improved from -13% year/year back in March to now -7% That is on USDA’s whole-year goal of -7%.

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Wheat shipments have met the goal.

USDA’s 720 million bushel export goal, for the year that started June 1, is -19% from the five year average sale. Year to date shipments are -16% from average and total 644.

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Soybean sales continue to struggle.

Brazil's pricing advantage remains in place. However, it has significantly narrowed.

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Four weeks of improved corn export sales.

Weekly export sales today cover Fri 5/3 – Thu 5/9 activity.

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Crush very disappointing yesterday, possible less aggressive pre buying of planting report

Yesterday’s crush report was a 7 month low of 166 mil bu (trade expected 183 mil bu)

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NOPA April soybean crush surprisingly low.

We have been expecting to clearly exceed USDA's general crush goal for months. However, this is strongly needed as an offset to poor export sales. Today's disappointing report removes some of the needed help. Lowering our remaining year hopes to now +4% to +7% we are likely down to an overage vs. USDA of +16 to +37 million bushels.

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Retail inflation in April +3.4% year over year.

Monthly inflation numbers showed a light decline from March's +3.5% year/year growth rate to +3.4% in April. This was on the trade expectation. This is a light rebuttal to the prior day's report showing a light increase in wholesale level price inflation. Markets now have priced in a 73% chance at a cut in short term interest rates at the September meeting of the Fed's policy making board.

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Ethanol production rates are missing the mark.

USDA surprised us last week with a 50 million bushel increase for old crop corn for ethanol usage. Now at 5.450 billion bushels, it would be +5.3% from last year's 5.176. There were others in the industry who agreed with this move.

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Funds Seen Quiet

Planting fears continue, CONAB raises BRA production, Nov resistance in the 1210 – 1225 area

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Lowered rains slightly, 6 – 10 day raised rains

Planting at 49% (54% ave), 1 – 5 day lowered rains slightly, 6 – 10 day raised rains

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