The latest monthly Cold Storage report counted 410.3 million lbs. of beef in frozen warehouses at the end of June. That was -11 million from the prior month. This was a steeper drop than the five year average of -5 for that month. Given lower production, that is reasonable and likely not market moving.
Continue reading →Light fund short covering may be continuing, strong exports, active resistance in the 420s
Continue reading →Today's weekly release of the Actual Slaughter report detailed meat production statistics for the second week of July.
Continue reading →Weekly beef export sales came to 13,383 tonnes last week. This was -37% vs. last year. Year to date sales are -7% vs. last year. Sales are on USDA's current goal of -7%. However, it must be noted the recent trend of -37%, -26% the week before and -16% the week before are lightly concerning.
Continue reading →309,319 tonnes were sold in this week. The trade estimate was 300,000 - 625,000.
Continue reading →With shipping included Brazil generally has a price advantage for both old and new crop delivery.
Continue reading →Weekly export sales today cover Fri 7/12 – Thu 7/18 activity. For near term delivery, with shipping included, the US and Brazil are near parity. For new crop the US has an advantage.
Continue reading →The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its first estimate for the completed Q2 this morning. This will be revised again on August 29 and September 26.
Continue reading →BB lower every day this week, futures trade appearing a bit more optimistic, no cash bids yet
Continue reading →The first three quarters of corn for ethanol usage came to 4.066 billion bushels, +6.0% from last year. To meet USDA's current 5.450 billion whole-year goal this fourth quarter needs to run 1.384 billion, +3.3% from last year. Given the fact this year's production efficiency is lower than last year we estimate actual ethanol production only needs to run +2.0% from last year in this quarter. That is our goal for these weekly ethanol reports in Q4, +2.0%.
Continue reading →PM BB slightly lower, showlist -14,500, average cash trade yesterday slightly better than exp
Continue reading →Funds cover 11K shorts, morning maps drier than Friday, active cash selling expected
Continue reading →Cattle on Feed would be called bullish. June placements, feeders and calves entering feedlots, were counted at 1.564 million head. That was a full -6.8% from last year. The trade estimate was -2.8% (ALDL -3.7%). This 1.564 million head inflow would be the smallest in eight years.
Continue reading →Rain totals lowered in the 10 day outlook, some heat on day 8, solid exports yesterday
Continue reading →Dressed steer weights rose +6 lbs. this week to 847. Dressed heifers were +5 lbs. to 916. This is a time of seasonally rising weights. Last year in this week they rose even more. That helped bring down the year over year overages again. Steers are running +24 lbs. vs. last year while heifers are +22.
Continue reading →Earlier this year Allendale released a study covering the general trading range that December corn and November soybeans see each year. Running from January 1 to expiration, simply looking at the high and the low, we used it to speculate on potential downside for 2024.
Continue reading →Weekly beef export sales came to 15,401 tonnes last week. This was -26% vs. last year. Year to date sales are -6% vs. last year. Sales are just over USDA's current goal of -7%.
Continue reading →USDA’s 825 million bushel new crop export goal, for the year that started June 1, is -4% from the five year average sale. Year to date sales are +9% vs. average. To meet USDA's goal remaining sales can fall to -4% vs. average through next May. Today's sale was -2% vs. average. If remaining sales are even with the average we'll exceed USDA's goal by 25 million bushels.
Continue reading →Brazil generally has a price advantage for both old and new crop delivery.
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