Corn Running Into Some Resistance

Corn – July now right at multiple resistance levels which could slow the recovery for now

↓ The “easy” chart room for a bounce has been used up and now July is at multiple resistance levels which will be tougher to cross, those levels are 457, 458 ¾ and 460

↔There were 4 resistance levels but July already moved above the 6 month downtrend line

↔For the first time in 13 weeks today’s ethanol report is tough to know what to expect, for quite some time it has seen a solid streak of strong reports but last week was disappointing

↑↓ The main discussion today is a continued forecast for moderate to active rains slowing planting vs the multiple chart resistance selling points that may even attract cash selling again

Beans – The same weather issues supporting corn are still supporting beans just on a smaller scale

↑ Morning maps kept the same active totals as yesterday but expanded coverage slightly

↓ Beans are not running into chart resistance but have generally more resistance than corn due to facing an acreage increase this year, reaching first chart resistance of 1196 might be a challenge

↔Last week’s exports saw a large improvement to 749K but since then we haven’t seen a single 8 AM sale of beans, this may lead traders today to expect a return to poor exports tomorrow

↔Just like corn, wetter weather maps during planting are considered bullish due to potential delayed planting, that opinion typically doesn’t change until the crop is 75% planted

Wheat – Expanded rains on the morning maps now reach better coverage of HRW areas

↓ When this morning’s maps increased rainfall coverage it now expanded out to HRW areas especially n the 1 - 5 day which has solid coverage for NE/SD and moderate coverage for ND

↔Most of these expanded rains involve 1” to 2” rain totals, enough to prevent GTE from falling again

↓ Anticipation of poor exports tomorrow may also attract light pre selling in CHI wheat today

Cattle – BB slowly recovering, futures pricing in cash +$1.50 this week, no cash bids seen yet

↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +1.47 Select +0.89 packer BE at 186.63, packer cushion $5.44

↔BB is still slowly recovering, it has helped but not reached packer profits to a moderate $7 yet

↓ There is some dispute over upcoming cattle numbers, 6 of the last 7 slaughter weeks has been down 6.5% and Marketings were lower than expected, both factors suggesting more numbers short term

↑ There is talk from packer buyers that they expect fewer numbers in May, a drastic difference from what the recent data tells us, one of these 2 groups is likely to be quite far off on their estimate

↔We have not seen a cash bid yet, BB and showlist still imply a steady cash trade like seen last week