Corn – Tariffs with Mexico now delayed until March 1st, 490’s likely to act as resistance again
↑ The recovery yesterday and light support overnight comes from the announcement that the tariffs with Mexico will be delayed until March 1st and Mexico is sending military troops to the border
↔ Mexico sounds confident it will meet Trump’s border requirements and avoid tariffs entirely
↔ Yesterday showed signs of fund buying yet OI was down 10K so it is actually a bit uncertain
↔ Let’s continue to expect new tariff headlines almost every day and also expect trade will be quick to react to them, over time the reactions may become smaller but for now they are still active
Beans – ARG has solid rains in the 10 day forecast, some rains might now be too far out in the forecast
↓ Solid rains are back into the ARG forecast but later in the 10 day outlook may start to look past the key timeframe for needing rains so changes to the weather maps may have less effect going forward
↔ Recently the range in March beans has been small, support in the 1030’s and resistance 1050’s
↔ The tariff delay does offer support allowing Mexico to continue buying beans and meal, no word on any changes with China yet but Trump is meeting with China this week so expect reactive headlines
↔ BRA bean harvest is at 9%, the 5 year average for this time is 12%
Wheat – No weather threats on the 10 day, down last night but expecting light support in general
↓ A lack of weather threats may be helping to ease wheat slightly lower in overnight trade
↑ Even though overnight is slightly lower we would still expect to see general light support due to last week’s exports rebounding to a strong 480K
↔ Until we get far enough in the calendar to accurately predict cold weather damage, exports and following corn/beans may continue to be the main drivers
Cattle – Choice + Select at 652, BB will add more support if it moves over 654, signs of fund selling
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +4.31 select +2.77 packer BE at 206.96, packer cushion -$0.98
↔ Solid BB bounce recovering some of the losses the last 3 days, would expect more support to futures if BB moves above the recent high of CH + SEL at 654
↓ Signs of fund selling again and that now makes 3 days in the last 5, that is often enough to make the case funds might be liquidating a very large long position, let’s watch for them daily
↓ We knew that once the Mexico border was re opened it could cause a $15 or more setback in feeder futures, now the border is open so yesterday’s pressure was expected and may continue