Tariff now just 1 day away adding pressure today, ethanol/exports fall to moderate this week
Corn – Tariff now just 1 day away adding pressure today, ethanol/exports fall to moderate this week
↓ As expected trade is pre selling due to tariffs expected to be placed on Canada/Mexico tomorrow
↔ Both the ethanol and export reports slowed this week going from a strong number to a more moderate level for each, not a bearish influence but also not helping add support this week
↔ Let’s keep watching tariff headlines as we might see changes at any point today or tomorrow
↓ Yesterday’s early start to pre selling may have been expected but it did not look like fund selling
↔ There is still talk of effort being put in to find an 11th hour deal to limit tariffs tomorrow
Beans – Exports slow to slightly poor, ARG weather maps flip flopping, also following tariff headlines
↓ Exports slowed yesterday to being slightly poor at 443K, total sales still ahead of USDA pace
↓ Weather maps for ARG have been flip flopping lately but this morning are back to showing light rains
↔ While the bulk of the tariff talk is on Canada/Mexico, Trump is bringing up China in the discussion as well which makes it easy for beans to follow the tariff trade in other markets
↔ 38% retracement is at 1025, a level that can be reached without changing the uptrend
Wheat – Exports recover to strong, there is a tariff headline directly involving wheat
↓ Trump warned BRICS against replacing US dollar with wheat tariffs
↓ Wheat has often been a follower of other markets recently so little surprise in seeing it overnight
↑ Exports bounced back to 480K, more is needed but that was one of the stronger reports in 5 weeks
Cattle – Most of yesterday’s NE trade was 209.50 (-$1), BB falling actively, fund selling for 2nd day
↓ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -3.06 select -4.77 packer BE at 204.27, packer cushion $1.82
↓ Cash trades yesterday were mostly $1 lower when futures were pre pricing in $5 or more higher
↓ BB is stepping back quickly taking packer gross profits to a new low so far this year
↓ Yesterday showed signs of a 2nd day of fund selling although still not overly aggressive
↑ Steer dressed weights fell 8 lbs to 954, this was expected from recent weather issues but may have stepped back a bit more than expected
↔ All technical levels in cattle seem extreme due to the recent major move and high overall price of cattle, the 38% “small” retracement level is no exception coming in at 195.425
