Corn – Exports expected moderate, 500 acting as resistance, new tariffs in place Saturday
↔ Despite recent exports being very strong, analysts are looking for a moderate 1300K today
↓ The 500 level is acting as resistance just as expected, that level can still be taken out but it may take a few tries before doing so (just like cattle saw 200 as resistance for a year but are now at 205)
↓ Most of the talk the next 2 days is likely to be centered on Saturday’s 25% tariffs on Canada/Mexico
↔ Even bearish analysts agree that the tariff on Mexico is not likely to change exports to that country by any real size, the cost is still lower after then 25% tariff than getting corn from South America
↑ Corn OI was up 33K yesterday suggesting moderate to active fund buying
Beans – Exports expected moderate, improved ARG weather maps, light fund buying
↔ Like corn, despite recent strong exports analysts are only looking for a moderate 1100K today
↓ ARG has improved 10 day weather maps going from mostly dry yesterday to moderate rains today
↑ There were signs of fund buying yesterday and OI was +12K, bean buying remains slower than corn
↔ China remains on holiday the rest of the week which is likely to limit export news
Wheat – Exports expected moderate, another cold event days 4 – 6, funds short 92K
↔ Wheat exports also expected moderate around 300K, last week was slightly poor at 215K
↑ There is another cold event that stretches into ND and SD, not as extreme or as much coverage as the last cold event but it could still catch some attention of traders
↔ Funds haven’t been actively buying wheat like corn but they are short 92K to eventually cover
Cattle – Brief signs of fund selling yesterday, BB turning back to lower, futures still $7 over cash
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -1.91 select -1.29 packer BE at 206.76, packer cushion $4.31
↓ The first 8 minutes of trade showed signs of active fund selling, that pattern was only seen for 8 minutes but any sign of fund selling likely kept other buyers away from this market yesterday
↔ It is likely that funds are at new record longs in cattle so there is a sizable position to liquidate which is likely why trade is watching them closely, even if the selling only lasts 8 minutes
↔ BB slightly lower yesterday, while it did make new highs this week it still looks mostly neutral
↔ Futures are still priced $7 over last week’s cash trade, even after yesterday's setback there is still sizable premium in futures right now
↔ Did not see any posts of cash bids yesterday which was somewhat surprising