Nationwide corn planting advanced from 49% complete to now 70% over the past week. The expectation was 68%. This was quite an effort. It was the second best planting gain for that week in 11 years.
Planting is tied for the 10th slowest by this date of 39 year history of USDA numbers.
Planting pace is a determinant of final yields, albeit a small one. A very ugly model would suggest -1.8% from trend yields. That would put the US at 177.8 bpa vs. USDA's 181.0 trend.
Nationwide soybean planting advanced from 35% complete to now 52% over the past week. The trade expectation was 49%. The five year average is 49%. This past week's 17% planting gain was next to the five year average gain.
Soybean planting is tied for 11th fastest of the 39 year history of USDA numbers.
Spring wheat planting advanced from 61% complete to now 79%. The trade expectation was 76%. The five year average, for comparison, is 65%.
Winter wheat ratings slipped 1% in the latest week to 49% good/excellent condition. The trade expected a 1% increase to 51%. The five year average for this week is 45%.
Ratings are now starting to become a little more relevant for yield discussions. Historically this week's ratings can explain 31% of final yield variance. That improves to 41% on June 2.
