Corn – Funds sellers of 8K, April crop report Thursday, largely clear forecast for the start of planting
↓↑ Friday’s COT report showed funds as sellers of 8K, 2nd week in a row of light selling but the last 3 trading days have shown open interest -14K each day suggesting funds may be short covering again
↑ The April crop report is on Thursday and 1st estimates suggest they carry out decline of 63 mil bu
↔ This morning’s 10 day forecast has moderate rains east with the western 2/3 of planting areas dry days 1 – 5, then 6 – 10 has central areas with light rain while west/east is dry, a normal Spring forecast
↔ The last week and a half saw active cash selling with May at 440 – 448, we will see if that continues
Beans – Funds light sellers, Thursday’s report expected neutral, export improvement is needed
↓ Funds were light sellers of 3K, on their scale that is very light trade and not much to talk about yet
↔ Thursday’s report expects carryout +4 mil bu (neutral), will see if USDA lowers exports though
↔ Bean exports have missed USDA expectations for 11 weeks in a row, while trade does not expect USDA to lower exports on Thursday it is quite possible they may do so on an upcoming report soon
↔ Most traders are in the process of rolling May contracts out to July right now which means that July will become lead contract likely by next week and will be the chart we want to focus on
Wheat – Mixed Russia reports, Thursday’s report expected slightly bearish, HRW areas remain dry
↔ Mixed reports on Russian exports, while trade has heard that some Russian exporters are having a problem getting export certifications Russia claims to now be in the clear and resuming exports to Egypt
↓ Thursday’s crop report it's expected to be slightly bearish raising carryout by 18 mil bu
↑ This morning’s 10 day forecast maps continue to keep HRW areas dry for most of the 10 day outlook, while last week's GTE report was strong at 56% some in trade may expect that to start moving lower
Cattle – No new significant bird flu headlines, funds sellers of 6K, BB still lower
↔ Friday’s PM BB was choice +0.02 Select -1.35 packer BE at 187.92, packer cushion $2.16
↔ We can expect headlines to continue writing something new about bird flu every day but there didn’t appear to be a new major headline over the weekend which Friday traders may have expected
↓ Funds were sellers of 6K likely due to bird flu concerns, on their scale that is moderate paced selling
↓ The largest true fundamental issue for cattle remains that BB continues to move lower, now packer profits have fallen near $2 which is a level we can expect packers to start easing back cash bids
↔ Most of last week's reported cash trades were between $1 and $2 lowe