Corn – Planting at 3%, OI down 20K, Thursday’s report expected to lower carryout 70 mln bu
↔ Planting was at 3% yesterday, the 5 year average is 2%
↑ Open interest was down 20K yesterday, that combined with 3 days before all seeing open interest down 14K suggests that funds may be short covering again at a slow to moderate pace
↑ Final estimates for Thursday’s report call for a carryout drop of 70 mil bu
↓ The last time aggressive cash selling came in was when July hit 450, we will see if that happens again
↓ The 6 month downtrend resistance line for May is at 441 ¾ this morning
Beans – No planting report yet, Thursday’s report expected to raise carryout 2 mil bu
↔ Thursday’s report is expected to be mostly neutral but we need to mention there is at least a small chance USDA may lower exports with weekly sales coming in under USDA estimates 11 weeks in a row
↓↑ If the USDA lowers exports slightly they may also raise crush resulting in an overall neutral report
↔ CONAB will update BRA production numbers Thursday as well, this may be the last time trade watches CONAB for the year unless they make a surprising/sizable change later
↔ There is no bean planting number yet, a progress report for that may be expected to start next week
Wheat – Spring wheat 3% planted, HRW GTE 56% (unchanged), carryout expected +17 mil bu
↔ Spring planting started out at 3% yesterday, trade will watch this more starting next week
↔ HRW GTE remained the same at 56%, morning maps added rains for HRW areas in the 6 – 10 day
↓ Thursday’s report is expected to raise carryout 17 mil bu, this will be expected from lowering exports
↔ We should expect more day to day influence from weather maps now, especially for HRW areas
Cattle – Large BB bounce, positive BB but so far only 1 report, trade remaining cautious for now
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +4.90 Select +5.57 packer BE at 191.24, packer cushion $7.12
↑ Yesterday’s sizable BB bounce puts packer profits back to the “moderate” level around $7, not high enough to assume a higher cash trade but much stronger than the near $2 level it was at yesterday
↔ Trade will remain cautious with BB, it was an aggressive bounce but so far it is still only 1 day higher after a 17 day pullback off of recent highs, more than 1 day is needed to call for a change in trend
↔ National showlist is +2400 which is a neutral number leaving BB as our main guide this week
↔ We should keep a watch for bird flu headlines but only expect market influence when something new is posted, most recent headlines are talking again about the news seen last week