Cattle on Feed called lightly bearish.

This afternoon's monthly COF report found October feedlot placements +5.3% from last year. The trade estimate was +3.8% (ALDL +2.8%). The 2.286 million head estimate would be the largest October inflow in seven years. October inflows help determine April - September fed cattle supplies.

Today's report does not change the general narrative of lightly lower steer/heifer slaughter ahead. Placements March - October as a whole will have run -1.5%. This gives us an idea of November - part of Q2 fed cattle supplies.

October outflows, marketings, were counted at +4.7% from the prior year. The trade estimate was +5.2% (ALDL +5.0%). This marketing number is not from a sudden jump in slaughter. It was due to a difference in calendar days 2023 vs. 2024. With higher placements and lower marketings than expected the 1 On Feed was increased from even with last year on October 1 to now +0.3% as of November 1. The trade expected -0.1% (ALDL -0.1%).

Let's give a slightly positive spin on Cattle on Feed. Yes, it was a bump in placements for October specifically. But the general trend of lightly lower placements has been seen for several months. It is now ready to be shown in market ready numbers. The most recent four week period has seen steer/heifer slaughter -0.9% from last year. The Cattle on Feed dataset would suggest those who have fed for +120 days or more, a rough estimate of market ready cattle, at -2.9% from last year. The long term placement numbers would suggest a smooth decline in supply offerings.

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