Corn – Funds pause on short covering, beans spill over light support, crop tours start this week
↔Funds were sellers of 6K on Friday’s COT report, not large enough to assume they have turned back to being sellers but it does remove the consistent short covering support seen the previous 4 weeks
↑ Beans spilled over some light support, until more is known on yields corn can be a follower
↔Crop tours start this week to give an updated idea on yields, traditionally these find the worst conditions that can be found, might be tough for trade to move from thoughts of record yields
↔Exports have been moderate but not yet strong enough to start adding in support
Beans – Forecast maps offer overnight support, likely most yield already determined, funds sell 5K
↑ Forecast maps turn to above average temps and mostly dry days 4 – 10, this added some overnight support, we will see if the day session traders agree as yield is most likely set for many areas
↔Funds sellers of 5K, like corn this is not enough to give the impression of new selling, more of a sign that funds aren’t interested in covering many bean shorts just yet, funds are short 94% of record
↔Last week’s new contract low for Nov was 955, we will see if that offers some support this week
↑ Exports have picked up to levels now seen as supportive, after a year of slow exports, more is needed
Wheat – US wheat has not followed as much recently but still influenced by the overseas grind lower
↓ Overseas slightly lower last night and back down to recent yearlong lows
↓ Spring wheat harvest underway and yield reports are strong like we saw in winter wheat
↔Funds sellers of 2K, not a big change but like beans they seem to have little interest in short covering
Cattle – Trade likely to expect around $3 lower ave cash trade, BB to new 30 day highs, funds sell 9K
↔Friday’s PM BB was choice +0.51 select +0.56 packer BE at 196.86, packer cushion $9.41
↓ Trade will be anticipating somewhere around a $3 lower average cash trade report today
↑ BB has moved to new 30 day highs, if we assume a $3 lower cash trade packers are starting this week with profits over $12 (at the highs of the year), there is reason to look for higher cash trade this week
↓ Funds are still liquidating longs, sellers of 9K, now long 45K or 29% of record
↑ While higher BB did not result in higher cash trade last week we still assume that is the exception rather than a new normal, still looking at boxed beef as the #1 long term guide for cash/futures