Winter wheat ratings slip. Planting ahead of expected for soybeans but slower than expected for spring wheat.
Nationwide corn planting advanced from 70% complete to now 83% over the past week. The expectation was 82%.
Though we are now ahead of the five year average we will not call it a quick planting. That average is a little disrupted by 2019. Planting is tied for the 11th slowest by this date of 39 year history of USDA numbers. Though the relationship between planting pace and final yields is small, and a bit sloppy, there is a relationship. While we will hold trend yields on our balance sheet we feel comfortable with the view a minor 1% or 2% deviation from trend yields is just fine for the market to trade.
Nationwide soybean planting advanced from 52% complete to now 68% over the past week. The trade expectation was 66%. The five year average is 63%.
This year's soybean planting would still be considered quick. It is tied for 14th fastest of the 39 year history of USDA numbers. Though the relationship is small, and sloppy, there is a relationship between planting pace and final yields. We will still hold trend yields on our balance sheets. However, a discussion of “minimally above trend” would be reasonable.
Spring wheat planting advanced from 79% complete to now 88%. The trade expectation was 91%. The five year average, for comparison, is 81%.
Winter wheat ratings slipped 1% in the latest week to 48% good/excellent condition. The trade expected no change at 49%. The five year average for this week is 46%.
Ratings are now starting to become a little more relevant for yield discussions. Historically this week's ratings can explain 35% of final yield variance. That improves to 41% on June 2.
Nationwide corn planting advanced from 70% complete to now 83% over the past week. The expectation was 82%.
Though we are now ahead of the five year average we will not call it a quick planting. That average is a little disrupted by 2019. Planting is tied for the 11th slowest by this date of 39 year history of USDA numbers. Though the relationship between planting pace and final yields is small, and a bit sloppy, there is a relationship. While we will hold trend yields on our balance sheet we feel comfortable with the view a minor 1% or 2% deviation from trend yields is just fine for the market to trade.
Nationwide soybean planting advanced from 52% complete to now 68% over the past week. The trade expectation was 66%. The five year average is 63%.
This year's soybean planting would still be considered quick. It is tied for 14th fastest of the 39 year history of USDA numbers. Though the relationship is small, and sloppy, there is a relationship between planting pace and final yields. We will still hold trend yields on our balance sheets. However, a discussion of “minimally above trend” would be reasonable.
Spring wheat planting advanced from 79% complete to now 88%. The trade expectation was 91%. The five year average, for comparison, is 81%.
Winter wheat ratings slipped 1% in the latest week to 48% good/excellent condition. The trade expected no change at 49%. The five year average for this week is 46%.
Ratings are now starting to become a little more relevant for yield discussions. Historically this week's ratings can explain 35% of final yield variance. That improves to 41% on June 2.