Corn – A clearer forecast for 3 days then regular rain systems again days 3 – 10, funds quiet
↑ The window for the clearer forecast closes soon with regular rain systems days 3 – 10
↔NOAA issued new 3 month outlooks yesterday which has slightly above average temps for most growing areas, heat to the far south and mostly normal rains over growing areas
↑ Due to rains seen this week we may see the day session follow the overnight with some pre buying of Monday afternoon’s planting report, trade has done that the last 3 Friday/Monday’s
↓ Funds were quiet again yesterday, after 3 days being quiet we might assume they are on the sidelines
Beans – Pre buying the planting report expecting to see bean pace fall below the average level
↑ Day session traders may add a even more pre buying support in beans on the expectation that bean planting pace will fall behind average for the first time this year on Monday’s report
↓ Weekly exports were poor at 301K, combined with crush it has been a poor week for demand reports
↔Funds having moved back to the sidelines does not cause selling but does remove the largest buyer over the last 2 months, support is still possible but it may be difficult to make new highs
↑ Forecast maps should continue to attract other speculative buyers even if funds are quiet but some of those buyers may wait for pullbacks closer to 1200 in July
Wheat – Russia claims 2 mil acres lost to a recent freeze, wheat quality tour estimates KS yield at 46.5
↑ A Russian Ag Minister estimates 2 mil acres were lost to a recent freeze, this is what overnight traders have been pre buying each night for almost 2 weeks
↓ The Wheat Quality Tour estimates KS wheat yields at 46.5 bu/acre, the USDA is currently at 38 and the 5 year average is 42.4, this is what has caused our day session traders to sell overnight bounces
↓ In the larger picture we would have to expect US conditions to have at least 60% influence on price
Cattle – BB higher again, NE bids cash at 188 (+$1.50), futures are pre pricing in $2 higher cash
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +3.38 Select +2.20 packer BE at 192.61, packer cushion $8.34
↑ BB still moving higher and we still have reason to expect that to be our #1 overall guide for price
↔For today’s trade we have reason to expect $2 higher cash and that is exactly what futures already have pre priced in which means movement today may be limited
↓ Dressed steer weights up another 3 lbs yesterday, weights now adding back in 3.1% to production, cattle numbers are expected down 5% by end of year, this suggests that while we can still look for upside this year on lower production, cattle weights will limit upside expectations