Corn – Beans easing up on spill over pressure, ethanol improved further this week but exports did not
↑ Beans are easing up on spill over pressure in overnight trade, outside market influence may be seen in the short term as trade waits for fresh news directly related to corn
↓ Main resistance is due to trade assuming a yield increase on the August 12th crop report, given that USDA has changed yield 25 years in a row on this report and corn GTE is 68%, a yield increase is possible
↔The recent selling has not come with a significant open interest increase which gives the impression that this selling was not a sign of funds adding to shorts again, we will see for sure on the COT report
↑ We may see at least some Friday profit taking to help add small support today
Beans – Overnight may be looking for more 8 AM sales, weekly exports improved further to 1021K
↔Maps reduced rains slightly in the 1 – 5 day this morning but raised rains in the 6 – 10 day
↑ Weekly exports improved further yesterday to 1021K and a small 8 AM sale was also seen to China
↔Trade is obviously focused mostly on yield right now but the stronger exports should add better support and give reason to find occasional bargain buyers
↔Like corn, traders are already assuming a yield increase on the August crop report, it is also likely they are looking for exports to be lowered as total exports are still missing USDA expected pace
Wheat – Exports fall further, now back to a poor level, may still see Friday profit taking buying
↓ Exports fell again yesterday to 287K, after a strong streak of exports in June they have fallen back to levels considered poor and behind USDA expectations
↔We have not seen any Russian crop estimate updates lately but should know that if analysts raise the RU crop estimates further it could cause more weakness
Cattle – BB lower again, NE cash trades down $0.50, KS/TX cash bids are $2.50 lower
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -1.98 Select -2.70 packer BE at 193.75, packer cushion $3.55
↓ Hearing KS/TX cash bids starting $2.50 lower caused an active setback yesterday which may continue a bit further today, traders likely started the week assuming a $1 higher cash trade
↓ BB is falling again and not far from the recent low, current choice + select is 610, the low that was made a couple weeks ago was 607, starting to give a negative feel again after the recent 3 day bounce
↔It is likely trade has mostly factored in the lower cash trade this week but some weakness may continue if BB continues lower as it will suggest another lower cash trade for next week