Corn – Light support seen when fund trade slowed, ethanol was strong last week at 1107K
↔ We will see if today’s ethanol report posts a strong number like seen last week at 1107K, any
number over 900K would look strong on today’s report
↑ Yesterday saw fund the selling slow which allowed for other traders to put in the light support
↑ A slow grind higher would be expected if funds remain on the sidelines given that current
fundamentals are still neutral to positive and March is still priced over 10 cents under fair value
↑ Index fund rebalancing should start taking place Friday afternoon, for corn this means an estimated
50K to 60K of buying, these funds will try to make as small an impact as possible but likely supportive
Beans – Morning 6 – 10 day weather maps still showing solid rains for BRA and ARG
↓ Morning maps still show moderate to active rains for BRA and ARG in the 6 to 10 day timeframe
which again is the start of the key yield deciding timeframe for some areas
↔ The total influence from active rains for SA might be limited as long as March is under fair value of
1300, small pressure still expected but March has already priced in a sizable SA crop
↔ There is a change for export expectations now, the season of highly active exports is now expected
to slow for the US meaning tomorrow’s weekly exports only need to be 800K to be moderate
↔ The next COT report will be important to watch as it will show if recent selling late last week and
early this week was funds flipping to a now net short position after being long all of 2023
Wheat – Wheat was included in the mix of recent fund selling, exports may not help much tomorrow
↔ Like corn/beans, wheat also saw fund selling recently but unlike those 2 markets the wheat may only
see light to moderate exports tomorrow of 200K – 300K
↔ March CHI took out recent support of 602 ½, next chart support not seen until 556 ¼
Cattle – BB aggressively lower again, NE reports cash trades $2 higher, this trend won’t continue
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -6.31 select -0.01 packer BE at 170.46, packer cushion -$1.82
↑ Yesterday reported cash trades in NE of 175 which was $2 higher than last week
↓ BB took an aggressive move lower yesterday, new lows on the year and new 11 month lows
↓ Gross packer profits are back into the negative, the largest negative number that was seen last year
was -$4.70 and the current BB move is quickly approaching that level
↔ It was surprising to see cash trade $2 higher this week and that initially looks positive but one thing
we know for certain is that BB cannot keep moving lower with cash moving higher, that is unsustainable