Corn – Ethanol still strong yesterday, analysts looking for recovery in exports today
↑ Ethanol came in strong yesterday again at 1054K, the one report that continue strong recently
↑ Analysts are expecting a recovery in exports this week around 800K, last week was 488K
↔ If we see both ethanol and exports strong that we could finally make a case for a slow recovery, so
we first want to see today’s exports show a drastic improvement over the last 2 weeks
↔ This week corn has seen better general support around 440
Beans – Analysts looking for recovery and exports like corn, expecting around 700K, last week 280K
↑ Analysts are expecting a recovery in exports this week around 700K despite not seeing 8 AM sales
↑ Better support is expected around 1200, both a round number level to expect support as well as
seeing that is the most recent chart support back in late 2021
↔ Improvement in exports is needed to see a lasting recovery
↔ SA maps are mostly unchanged with BRA seeing solid rains in the 10 day forecast while ARG remains
mostly dry in the 10 day forecast
↓ If March was to see continued support the 1st chart resistance would be around 1250
Wheat – Like corn/beans, analysts are looking for a recovery in exports around 300K, last week 128K
↑ Analysts are looking for recovery in exports back to a more average number of 300K
↔ For wheat, exports of the #1 influence this time of year, a lasting bounce needs strong exports
↔ Overseas wheat looks to have caught itself and move more sideways this week, not yet showing
signs of recovery but at least for one week not continuing the grind lower
Cattle – BB sees a small setback, cash bids still difficult to find but the few seen imply $1 higher cash
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -2.16 select +0.74 packer BE at 184.17, packer cushion $12.41
↔ BB showed a small setback yesterday, so far after the major BB rally the small setback is unlikely to
offer any influence, we will see if this lasts multiple days to start showing concern over the bounce
↔ Cash bids have been limited, the few that have been seen imply a $1 higher cash trade
↓ Feb futures have pre-priced in a $2 higher cash trade so it could be said that futures are slightly
overpriced given the cash bids we have seen so far
↔ For now it can be said that the BB is still strong enough to suggest general light support, high cattle
weights and cautious trade along with funds on the sidelines likely means a slow grind higher in futures