Corn – Insurance price will be set close to 465 ½, OI did up 4K yesterday, profit taking Friday?
↔ An estimate of where insurance price will be set should be close to 465 ½ (last year 591)
↔ OI was +4K yesterday, along with trading patterns this suggests funds were quiet yesterday
↓ May corn is up 15 cents on the week, this could attract some light Friday profit taking selling
↑ Ethanol and exports are both positive this week adding back in some fundamental positive news
↔ This afternoon we will finally see on the COT report if there was any fund short covering through
Tuesday’s close, large scale buying started Wednesday which will not show up until next week’s COT
Beans – Insurance price will be set close to 1154, exports still poor, over all chart trend still lower
↔ An estimate of where insurance price will be set should be close to 1154 (last year 1376)
↑ Overnight is bouncing off new 3 year lows set yesterday, mostly looking like a small technical bounce
↓ Given that yesterday made new 3 year lows the overall look of the chart is still trending lower
↓ Exports remained poor at 160K, to be supportive this will need to recover to at least 500K
↔ To give a very first sign of a recovery the first step will be to take out this week’s high of 1161 ½
Wheat – May CHI still very close to the middle of the range at 574, neutral exports
↔ Exports were slightly disappointing but likely most will call them good enough to say “neutral”
↔ Price reflects neutral exports yesterday with May CHI staying very close to the middle of the range
↓ Overseas wheat made new 3 year lows again last night, spilling pressure to US wheat again
Cattle – Most cash trades yesterday were steady to $0.50 higher, futures trade now highly cautious
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +1.17 Select +1.24 packer BE at 189.99, packer cushion $7.43
↑ Cash trades yesterday were mostly steady to +$0.50 just what we would expect from higher BB
↑ BB has slowly moved packer profits back over $7 where we can assume higher cash even on a slightly
higher showlist like we saw this week, as far as cash goes it is following just as expected
↓ Futures trade has become highly cautious and may be seeing a rush of hedges
↓ The following are a few reasons that might be causing the cautious trade: This being the seasonal
time for a high (seasonals have not worked well for 2 years), hedge pressure as those buying feeders
want to lock in price on fats right away (solid idea), BB is approaching a level where it has stalled out in
the past with choice + select now at 598 and previous resistance on BB being 600