Corn – Exports poor last week at 335K, overnight may be looking for poor exports again today
↓ Overnight may be looking for poor sales again today like seen last week at 335K
↓ Beans are continuing to supply regular pressure to corn as the bean trend remains a grind lower
↑ Solid support is still being seen around and just under 440, we can expect that again today
↔Yesterday’s ethanol report was disappointing at 983K, after 10 weeks of ethanol running higher than expected this one week setback puts ethanol right back in line with USDA expectations
↔After rains move through today the morning GFS maps suggest a 7 day window for planting that only involves very light rains in that time
Beans – Overnight supplying pressure but exports today should see at least a small improvement
↓ Overnight trade is going with the prevailing trend and pre selling beans before the day session starts
↑ Exports today are expected to be 500K – 600K, an improvement over last week’s 305K
↔There are still no clear signs that pressure is fund related, we won’t know that for sure until seeing Friday’s COT report but open interest still suggests both corn/bean pressure is mostly cash selling
↔Some of this cash selling is expected to be coming from BRA, not entirely from US producers
↔There is talk of the US increasing China steel and aluminum tariffs from 7% to 25%, some are fearing this may slow China buying of beans even further
Wheat – HRW areas mostly dry the next 10 days, trade may look for another 1% lower GTE Monday
↑ Light support may come back in KC wheat as the HRW forecast remains mostly dry for 10 days which could lower GTE ratings another 1% on Monday, keep in mind GTE ratings are still far above the 5 yr ave
↔Exports last week returned to a moderate level of 355K, we will see if that continues today
↑ Russian wheat prices have started to move up slightly, this may slowly ease some overseas pressure that we saw for 2 months earlier this year
Cattle – June still seeing resistance around 176, no cash bids seen yesterday, BB still moving lower
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -1.21 Select -1.76 packer BE at 186.59, packer cushion $4.68
↔Recent buying has looked like fund buying while core fundamental news is pointing lower right now with BB now having slid enough to potentially offset the lower showlist this week
↔With packer profits under $5, the -24,500 showlist may now only generate a steady trade at 182
↓ The current BB slide takes out recent lows and is now near 2 month lows
↔For now the BB has not fallen enough to suggest a new trend lower for futures but it may cause cash to move lower to meet up with futures, everything together currently suggests sideways trade