Corn – OI down 15K, still puts fund buying as a “maybe”, ethanol expected strong of 1050K or higher
↑ Ethanol is expected strong today of at least 1050K or higher, last week was 1084K
↔ Yesterday’s OI was down 15K, not a major number this time, still puts fund of buying as a “maybe”
↔ At current levels the May chart is still clearly in a downtrend, even the 1st level on a chart that
would suggest a larger scale turn around would be the 38% retracement and that is 455
↔ The demand side for Corn is not poor but is more neutral, ethanol has improved to an overall strong
level although exports have eased back to being slightly disappointing, neutral demand influence overall
↔ China recently bought corn from Ukraine so some believe they will soon make a US purchase
Beans – OI down 19K, an 8 AM sale yesterday was small but still at least some improvement
↔ Yesterday’s 8 AM sale of 123K beans to unknown was not large but at least still some improvement
↔ Trade immediately assumed that the sale yesterday to “unknown” was China but some support
eased later in the day as it is likely traders remembered the last “unknown” sale was Columbia
↓ Like corn, despite the recent support the May chart still has a clear downwards trend, the first tactical
level to suggest a turnaround on the chart is not seen until 1212 ½
↔ For fundamental help towards suggesting a recovery, weekly exports would need to return to at
least a normal level around 500K if not a truly supportive number closer to 700K or more
Wheat – Choppy lately but still more sideways than either corn/beans, overseas looking the same
↔ Choppy trade lately but in all the activity, wheat is the most sideways market of the 3 grains
↔ Overseas trade is similar in that recent trade has been more sideways/choppy rather than trending
↔ Like corn/beans if wheat is going to find fundamental help for recovery, better exports are needed
Cattle – No cash bids seen yet, BB continues a slow move higher, futures are sideways/cautious
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -0.05 Select +2.41 packer BE at 188.00, packer cushion $5.44
↔ There were no cash bids seen yet yesterday, a starting assumption would be a steady bid of 182.50
which may result in a $0.50 to $1.00 higher cash trade around 183
↔ Futures remain slightly cautious yesterday likely due to the fact that futures have already factored in
a cash trade closer to 185.50
↑ As long as BB continues a slow grind higher then there is reason to expect cash to follow and also
reason to not be too concerned with futures being priced over cash for now