Corn – Trade will be looking for improved exports this week of 1200K or more, OI down 27K
↔ Trade will be looking for improved exports of 1200K+, an improvement over last week’s 1007K
↑ Yesterday showed both trading pattern signs of fund activity as well as open interest falling 27K
↔ The amount of support that fund short covering will provide is still determined by the fundamental
news that is being seen while funds are short covering, neutral news = smaller bounce
↑ Ethanol maintained a strong number yesterday of 1078K, that report continues to be supportive
↔ The first level of technical resistance will be a downtrend line that crosses today at 435
Beans – Overnight traders anticipating another poor export report, any number under 500K is poor
↓ After last week's very poor weekly sales of 56K traders are already anticipating another poor week
this week, any number under 500K would be considered disappointing
↔ OI down 8K yesterday suggests there might have been light fund buying but nothing aggressive
↔ As much as the corn chart is starting to put in a small bounce the bean chart does not look the same,
that chart continues to look like a grind lower that has just slowed the last couple days
↓ From a fundamental outlook the above statement makes sense as corn is seeing strong ethanol and
moderate exports while beans are continuing to see poor to very poor exports
Wheat – Still choppy but still sideways, for May CHI the middle of the choppy range is 573 ¾
↔ Exports last week were disappointing but the previous five weeks before that were strong so trade is
remaining at least moderately optimistic that last week’s slowdown may have been a one week event
↔ Through all the choppy trade wheat is still mostly sideways, May CHI is near the middle of that range
↔ Moderate exports today would be 400K, we will see how today's number comes in compared to that
Cattle – First cash bids are 182 in NE and 183 in KS/TX, BB continues higher, choice + select = 596
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +1.29 Select +2.54 packer BE at 189.22, packer cushion $6.66
↔ Yesterday's setback removed most of the premium that futures had above cash trades, previously
futures were priced about $3.50 over cash and after yesterday is now priced $2 over
↔ The set back yesterday shows signs of futures being more cautious but did not take out any
important charts support levels which still suggests at least a sideways trade for now
↔ Starting cash bids were $1 lower in NE at 182 and a steady cash bid in KS/TX of 183
↑ BB continues higher but is approaching a resistance level seen last year of choice + select around 600