Corn – Solid exports but a lack of volume in trade keeps March around 480
↑ Exports were solid yesterday at 1419K, USDA may raise exports on the Jan crop report 25 mil bu
↔ Volume backed off even further yesterday which meant March gravitated towards 480 fair value
↔ Unless a headline is seen or there is a sizeable 8 AM sale, we may see spill over influence from beans
or wheat as the top influence on corn, still expecting a lack of news to gravitate toward 480
↔ If funds cover more positions going into end of year, that means potential light buying for corn
Beans – 8 AM sales have totaled 855K this week, we will see if there are more this morning
↔↑ Weekly exports were only moderate at 1084K but 8 AM sales have totaled 855K this week
↔ Exports have been solid lately, not quite strong enough to suggest USDA will raise exports on the Jan
crop report though, we will see if sales continue to improve into the end of the year
↔ 10 day SA weather maps continue to look solid, same as earlier this week which is ARG seeing active
rains days 1 – 5 and BRA seeing active rains days 6 – 10, this morning’s maps increased coverage slightly
↔ The ARG peso devaluation and potential elimination of export taxes is a factor to consider but may
take some time before it makes a large enough difference to improve ARG exports
Wheat – Weekly exports were slightly above expectations, March CHI continues to trade around 610
↑ Weekly exports were likely slightly better than expected, this will help keep improved support as well
with March CHI trading around 610 – 620
↔ Additional 8 AM sales are unlikely since the aggressive round of China buying so the Thursday
weekly export report will likely be the main guide going forward
↔ The USDA may raise exports slightly on the Jan report, no major changes expected though
Cattle – Speculators remain quick to buy small pieces of improved news, like the feeder index +2.51
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +0.64 select -0.95 packer BE at 174.81, packer cushion $3.83
↑ Feeders added support from seeing the feeder index +2.51 yesterday, spilling support to fats as well
↔ BB remains mostly neutral after seeing a bounce to start the week
↓ Cash trades fell another 0.50 yesterday with NE trading mostly $1 to $1.50 lower on the week
↔ Dec futures remain $4 under last week’s cash but this week’s cash is expected to be $1 to $2 lower
so the gap between cash and futures is likely to narrow on Monday’s average cash report
↔ BB still #1 and while it isn’t sliding all that much, it is certainly not improving enough to expect major
lasting support and also not enough to expect fund reinvestment back to adding longs