Corn – Traders remain concerned over the railroad closures, we will see if it impacts weekly exports
↓ The top concern remains the 2 rail closures into Mexico with the latest headline stating the US is
"working closely with the Mexican government in an attempt to resolve this issue, while surging personnel to the region."
↔ We will see if this affects today’s weekly exports but any true effect may not be seen until next
week’s weekly sales report, this will be a headline to continue watching until it is resolved
↓ March took out contract lows yesterday, not leaving much on the chart for predictable support
↔ This rail issue is impossible to tell if or how much it will affect exports, of course we can expect trade
to continue to “sell now, check details later” but March is already pre pricing in a sizable export problem
Beans – All 10 days of the GFS maps have moderate rains for both BRA/ARG, exports expected strong
↓ Morning maps now have both ARG and BRA seeing regular moderate rains all 10 days of the forecast
↑ Exports are estimated to be 1500K – 2000K today due to the streak of 8 AM sales, those estimates
might be a bit aggressive but we will see what number we get with any number 1200K+ being strong
↔ News writers continue to talk of severe SA weather issues while weather maps and forecasters
suggest otherwise, with March near fair value it’s clear to see traders agree with maps and forecasters
↑ Better general support will be seen at any March level of 1310 or lower, any area under fair value
Wheat – March CHI still in the 610 – 620 range, exports expected to slow to a moderate 300K
↔ Exports expected to slow to a moderate 300K so March CHI remains at a moderate 610 – 620 level
↔ For the most part everything is just “OK” for wheat which is resulting in sideways trade
↔ The top influence for this market will remain Thursday’s weekly exports all the way to spring
Cattle – Cash trades $1 higher, BB resumes lower, good news this week, threatening next week
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +0.30 select -1.56 packer BE at 174.86, packer cushion $4.90
↑ Last week’s BB bounce was enough to help cash trades turn $1 higher this week which stopped a 6
week slide in cash trade and removed some caution from futures trade
↓ This week’s BB looks to slowly be turning lower again which makes it difficult to expect a higher cash
trade next week unless BB turns higher again
↔ Tomorrow’s COF estimates are: On Feed 102.2, Placed 96.2, Marketed 93.3, putting all these
numbers together it is clearly a bearish expectation but we will see if trade only focuses on Placements
↔ The Placements estimate suggests lower numbers in summer but the Marketings and On Feed
suggest there is a demand problem right now which at this point we are aware of by watching BB