Will Ethanol Recover After A Disappointing Week, Last Week?

Corn – Yesterday’s trading patterns gave the impression of index fund buying, ethanol at 9:30

↔ Yesterday’s support came in a way that implied index fund buying, if true that may suggest support today at the end of the month and then move back to the sidelines

↔ There is still no sign of trading fund short covering both in volume and open interest changes

↔ At 9:30 we will see if today’s ethanol report sees a recovery after last week’s disappointing 818K

↔ A lack of fresh news suggests yesterday was a “turnaround Tuesday” trade and index fund buying, both factors would suggest temporary support instead of a lasting recovery

Beans – Overnight anticipating the day session will give back yesterday’s “turnaround Tuesday” trade

↓ Overnight traders are already anticipating that today will give back at least a portion of yesterday’s “turnaround Tuesday” trade although we may still see index fund buying on the close

↔ Like corn, there were no major changes in news to be seen to back up the support found yesterday

↑ The 3 year low level 1181 ¼ should act as chart support, could find speculative buying there again

↔ Today is the last day of the month so it is possible to find index fund buying and possible that we may see some trading fund short covering

↔ It is important to point out when a move is made on virtually no news like we saw yesterday, we might remain skeptical of yesterday’s support on little to no fresh news

Wheat – Overseas held the previous day low but still looks to be under solid pressure

↓ Overseas we did not make new lows last night but was still under enough pressure to supply spillover resistance to US wheat today

↑ Two chart levels have acted as the recent support, 1st being the January low of 573 1/4 with the 2nd being the 3 year low setback in November which is at 556 ¼

Cattle – BB lower but still not yet concerning, anticipating steady to $1 higher cash bids today

↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice - shift 3.35 select -1.77 packer BE at 185.14, packer cushion $10.68

↓ BB lower again yesterday which may ease up on the amount of support we see today but is not low enough to start assuming a new pullback just yet, packer profits still over $10

↔ The lower showlist this week suggests we may start with a steady cash bid of 174 today and could possibly see that bid moved to $1 higher later today or tomorrow

↔ Less support was seen during yesterday’s trading session but no active selling has been seen yet

↔ The recent theme of trade has been slowing but not turning bearish