Corn – Ethanol strong yesterday, exports expected moderate (900K) to strong (1200K+) today
↓ Overnight trade slightly cautious as seen each overnight this week, possibly looking for fund selling
↑ Ethanol came in strong yesterday at 1049K, reasonable to expect USDA to raise ethanol next week
↔↑ Today’s exports are expected moderate to strong similar to last week’s 1253K, recent exports
have been strong enough to expect USDA to raise exports as well on next Friday’s report
↑ Corn lacks the exciting news to cause a sudden bounce but still tends to drift slowly higher during the
day session each day that funds remain on the sidelines, drifting back towards 480 fair value
Beans – Still seeing solid SA rains, exports expected moderate (800K) to strong (1000K)
↓ There continues to be a grind lower due to an extended forecast that shows solid rains for both BRA
and ARG, this will likely limit production estimates going forward
↔ When hearing production estimates keep in mind last year’s BRA crop was very solid at 154.6 MMT
↔ Exports normally slow this time of year so reaching a moderate export number would only take 800K
↔ It makes sense that on threatening BRA forecast maps weeks ago trade took March $1 over fair
value to 1400, now that BRA has a solid forecast trade is taking March 30 cents+ under fair value
↔ March beans at 1300 factors in a solid BRA crop near last year’s level
Wheat – March CHI has moved back to the old range of 610 to 620, exports expected moderate (300K)
↔ While corn/beans continue to trade under fair value the wheat has already recovered back to its fair
value level in the 610 to 620 range
↔ Exports will be expected moderate today around 300K
↔ There are rumors of China buying again but nothing that can be confirmed yet
Cattle – Cash trades continue +$2.50 in NE, BB continues its grind lower, futures slightly biasing BB
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -2.13 select -0.03 packer BE at 169.77, packer cushion -$2.51
↑ Cash continues to trade +$2.50 in NE at 174.50 which continues to keep light support in futures
↓ BB continues to move lower, enough so that is keeping a slight overall bearish bias on futures
↓ Cash bounced on Wednesday which provided support but is held steady since then while BB
continues to move lower every day, this is why futures are siding with a slight bearish bias
↔ After factoring in this week’s higher cash trade, packer profits are near last year’s low of -$4, a low
enough level that packers should be expected to put effort into bidding as low as they can going forward