Corn – Ethanol slowed a bit further but still strong at 1024K, exports expected to do the same today
↑ Ethanol slowed a bit more but still strong at 1024K yesterday
↑ Exports are expected to slow but also remain strong above 1000K today
↔ After an early bounce yesterday then an easing back and with open interest +15K it may suggest that
we saw cash selling or forward hedging on yesterday’s small bounce
↑ Allendale acreage surveys suggested corn acres -1.169 mil from last year at 93.472
↔ It’s been 3 weeks since seeing a technical correction to the downside, something to watch for
Beans – Exports are uncertain today, a streak of poor reports followed by a positive number last week
↑ Trade may be expecting another solid or strong report (500K+) like seen last week
↔ For now exports are uncertain with a streak of poor reports followed by 1 strong report, was last
week a turnaround or was it a one week event in the middle of continued poor exports?
↔ Allendale acreage surveys suggested bean acres +2.232 mil from last year at 85.832
↔ While some acres are expected to switch to beans, it may not cause pressure on this market due to
expecting total acreage to be down 890K
↔ NOPA crush is out tomorrow with expectations of 178.058 mil bu
Wheat – After a 4 day bounce overseas wheat now heading lower again, US following
↓ Overseas wheat was lower yesterday and that is continuing overnight
↓ Right now it strongly appears that overseas is still leading US wheat prices on a daily basis
↔ When we get closer to the end of the month it is likely that US weather will take over as the top
influence but for now, with exports neutral, overseas trade remains the #1 influence
Cattle – Cash bids up $1, futures outrun that news likely looking to fill the April chart gap
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -0.77 Select +1.44 packer BE at 193.95, packer cushion $9.28
↑ First NE cash bids yesterday were $1 higher at 185.50, implies a $1.50 or $2 higher cash trade
↑ Futures ran up a bit more than cash bids would suggest yesterday, likely attempting to fill an April
chart gap at 190.275, when that is filled new speculative selling will be expected short term
↑ BB continues to slowly grind higher which is very important with futures staying $5 over last week’s
cash while bids suggest this week will be $2 higher, the best way to reach the futures level is higher BB
↓ Filling the April chart gap is a speculators target but once it is filled it can draw in sudden spec selling