Corn – Harvest 14% (5 yr ave 11%), signs of fund short covering yesterday, Dec 416 is key resistance
↓ Harvest is slightly ahead of pace which is typically known for offering a small amount of resistance
↑ After taking all last week off there were signs of fund short covering again yesterday, given they have already covered 2/3 of their shorts we can still expect occasional buying, just not as often
↓ The 30 day high that has been tested 6 times is still at 416, the key level to watch
↔Harvest pressure still has not been seen much although the bulk of that selling typically occurs when harvest is 20% - 70% complete and as of Sunday night we are at 14%, it is still early
Beans – Harvest 13% (5 yr ave 8%), signs of fund short covering yesterday, more 8 AM sales expected
↓ Same as corn, harvest slightly ahead of average usually draws in some light resistance
↑ Funds not only short covered beans yesterday, it was the bean market where they looked most active which is the first time we have seen that since short covering began
↑ The hurricane expected to make landfall Thursday still suggests 3” to 7” of rain over parts of the Delta, trade will be concerned about possible crop losses in that area
↑ More 8 AM sales are expected, this time of year they are expected almost daily
Wheat – HRW planting 25% (5 yr ave 24%), fund short covering yesterday, forecast clear for planting
↔Winter wheat planting is almost right on normal pace, the 10 day forecast is clear for planting
↑ Like beans, wheat has not seen fund short covering lately but active fund trade was seen yesterday
↔Thursday’s exports will be important, was last week’s setback to 258K a one week event or are wheat exports slowing again as they did most of 2024?
Cattle – PM BB not quite as strong as expected, early estimate on cash might be $1 lower
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +1.62 select -0.80 packer BE at 187.20, packer cushion $4.08
↔The PM BB report was not quite as strong as the AM report yesterday, packer profits on the low side
↓ The PM BB report coming in lower than expected starts the week with a slightly negative outlook for cash, showlist is +5300 and packer profits are $4 (under the expected neutral $7 level)
↔Yesterday saw follow through buying left over from Friday but today through the rest of the week is likely to remain focused on expectations of what cash bids/trades will be this week
↑ Speculators are quick to add support on any higher BB report but longer term we know we need a minimum of 3 higher days in a row and more size of a bounce than we have seen so far