Corn – Light fund short covering is likely but more aggressive cash selling also likely
↑ Funds slowed their short covering lately but have still been doing so for 4 weeks and likely this week
↓ With a continued open interest increase it is likely that producers are cash selling corn just as fast, if
not recently a little faster, than funds are buying which is keeping corn trending sideways
↑ The analyst average estimate for corn acres is 91.776 (down 2.865 from last year)
↔ The analyst estimate on acreage is on the aggressive side both when looking back at previous years
and compared to our acreage survey but should still attract buying ahead of the report
Beans – More fund short covering than seen in corn, less producer selling, acreage expected higher
↑ There are signs of fund short covering with less producer cash selling which has recently allowed for a
faster bounce than corn, funds short covering is “catching up” to what they have already done in corn
↓↔ Acreage on Thursday is expected at 86.520 (up 2.920 from last year) we have been saying for days
that this still may not be bearish due to total acreage between all 3 crops to be down 2.190 million
↓ Overnight may see a bit more pressure than day session as overnight does not see the fund short
covering that happens after 8:30
↓ While cash selling looks slower in beans than corn, it does likely pick up at levels over 1200
Wheat – Better support seen once the average acreage came out down 2.245
↑ Better general support was seen once acreage came out 47.330, down 2.245 from last year and likely
a lower total wheat acreage number than most expected
↑ Fund short covering has not been aggressive in wheat but they are still short 50% of record and may
have stepped up short covering after seeing acreage and also ahead of end of month/quarter
↔ There still is some overseas wheat influence but much less than seen the previous 3 weeks
Cattle – Showlist -6200, BB slightly higher, packer profits no longer strong but not horrible yet
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +0.17 Select +0.49 packer BE at 194.58, packer cushion $6.50
↓ Placements from Friday may still have spill over resistance on cattle until seeing first packer cash bids
↔ BB was still slightly higher yesterday, packer profits not impressive but also not poor at $6.50
↔ June moved down to a lower range trade level this market was in back in February which was mostly
between 180.50 and 183.50, June will not have taken out key support unless it falls under 179.825
↔ The recent setback in BB, the higher Placements and lower packer profits all suggest an easing back
from recent trade but none of these factors yet suggest a new trend lower, we will watch closely