Corn – Yesterday may have been more pre USDA report cash selling, report expected bullish
↓ Similar to the acreage report, yesterday appeared to see active cash selling ahead of tomorrow’s USDA report even though the report is expected to be bullish
↔ With open interest down 2K the selling yesterday does not seem to be coming from fund trade
↔ Recent support held in July corn, 3 week low support in July is at 438 ½
↑ Tomorrow’s report is expected slightly bullish anticipating a carryout reduction of 70 mil bu
↑ Ethanol will be expected strong again today, last week posted a very strong number of 1073K
Beans – Report tomorrow expected neutral, might see another small 8 AM sale, cash selling likely
↓ Like corn, beans saw what appeared to be light to moderate cash selling ahead of tomorrow's report
↔ Tomorrow’s report is expected neutral with a 2 mil bu increase to carryout
↑ It is possible to see another small 8 AM sale this morning just ahead of tomorrow’s report
↔ Tomorrow’s report will be interesting to watch for beans, exports are almost certainly going to move lower as they have been disappointing for 11 weeks, crush is expected to make up for slow exports
↔ There is talk of a few early beans being planted ahead of the upcoming rains for areas IL and east
Wheat – Russian headlines continue but total exports from that area not expected to change
↑ There are various headlines out of Russia involving wheat exports with some being companies unable to get export clearance while another export company was taken over by the gov’t, these unsure headlines are likely the cause of the overnight support
↔ Most analysts feel that despite the headlines, total exports out of Russia are likely to be unchanged
↔ For Russian headlines our focus should be on the above mentioned total exports
Cattle – BB calm yesterday, futures still priced $3.50 under cash, should see first cash bids today
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +0.02 Select -0.37 packer BE at 191.13, packer cushion $7.01
↔ BB was calm yesterday which leaves packer profits right on the “neutral” level of $7
↔ Even after the recent futures recovery the April is still priced $3.50 under last week’s cash
↔ With showlist neutral and packer profits also neutral we might expect packers to start with a steady
cash bid today which would be 184 in KS/TX or 187 in NE
↔ The recent bounce has been impressive, on the chart June would need to move above 177.275
before we could make the case that fat cattle have bounced enough to expect a lasting recovery