Corn – Wheat offers spill over support, funds resume selling corn, planting should pass 75% today
↑ Double digit gains in wheat caused spill over buying in corn taking Dec back to 490’s resistance
↓ Friday’s COT report showed funds as sellers of 50K, only 1 report but shows funds resuming selling
↔ Planting should easily pass 75% on today’s report, traders likely to switch to a summer mindset
where heat and lack of rain would be bullish
↓ Once again the 490’s in Dec corn saw active resistance, we should continue expecting sellers near 500
↔ Dec corn in the 490’s already factors in below trend yield, something to keep in mind this summer
Beans – A clearer forecast still has planting implications, still no confirmation of China buying
↓ Beans will not pass 75% planted today so a clearer forecast still adds some weight being seen as
beneficial for finishing, remember that planting has never been behind ave pace for beans this spring
↓ Trade was expecting an 8 AM sales announcement to China for 3 days last week that was never seen
↔ The BRA/US price comparison to China does suggest we may see more sales to China, we just
haven’t seen any confirmation that exports have picked up yet
↓ Nov beans found resistance at/above 1220 just as expected, as reliable as the 490’s for new corn
Wheat – Private analysts lower their thoughts on Russian wheat production again, Russia mostly quiet
↑ Over the weekend an analyst lowered their production thoughts on Russia from 83.5 MMT to 81.5
↑ Russia has claimed that 1.5 mil hectares of wheat have been damaged by frost earlier this month
↓ US wheat harvest is expected to show strong to very strong yields, while focus remains mostly on
Russia for now, once US harvest starts up we would expect strong yield numbers to add weight
Cattle – BB higher still near key resistance, COF numbers close to estimates, packer profits still solid
↔ Friday’s PM BB was choice +0.61 Select +1.64 packer BE at 194.36, packer cushion $8.00
↔ Placements on Friday were 94.2% when trade expected 93.3%, just slightly higher than expected
↑ BB is still strong enough to start this week with a guess at a higher cash trade, the issue is that if BB
can’t take out resistance it would limit expectations for higher cash each week after this week
↔ Choice + Select is at 612 and key resistance is 617, the highest level seen last week was 616
↑ Funds bought 10K cattle last week, their first active buying week since early March