Corn – Open interest down 14K yesterday, possible 2nd day of fund short covering, strong exports
↑ In the last 8 days corn has seen acreage down 4.6 million, ethanol with one of the strongest reports in 6 months and solid exports, if there is a limiting factor for corn it isn’t a lack of positive news
↑ Open interest was down 14K for the 2nd day in a row, possible that is a sign of fund short covering
↔ Given that the open interest drop started on Wednesday we will not know for sure if it was fund related until next Friday’s COT report
↓ The first resistance for May is still a 6 month downtrend line, today that line is at 443 ¼
Beans – Still lagging corn/wheat as beans have not seen as positive of news lately, exports poor again
↓ Exports were quite disappointing yesterday at 194K, 11 weeks in a row of at least slightly poor sales
↓ Acreage from last week may keep beans lagging corn/wheat as an overall general trend
↑ Last night corn/wheat traded strong which was enough to lift beans higher
↔ Until news is seen that is a change for beans other than continued slightly poor exports, beans may be mostly a follower of other markets until weather maps offer larger influence in 2 weeks
Wheat – Overnight CHI wheat posted new 30 day highs, Russian exporter denying certification claims
↑ At this point it is difficult to find a story to go with the overnight wheat buying but May CHI made new 30 day highs on a moderate volume overnight bounce
↔ The Russian exporter that was claimed could not get export certifications is denying that story
↑ A general lack of rains over HRW areas may be helping to lift wheat, while GTE ratings started strong at 56%, some in trade might be anticipating that number will move lower on Monday
Cattle – NE traded mostly $1 lower yesterday, BB still lower, weights are now a major issue
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -4.15 Select -0.87 packer BE at 188.34, packer cushion $2.58
↓ Cash might be trading just $1 lower this week but with BB making a serious move to the downside and packer profits under $3 it is likely that cash will continue lower next week, possibly be more than $1
↓ Dressed steer weights were up another 2 lbs when normally they move lower this time of year, that now means weights are up 3.1% almost completely offsetting the 3.5% fewer numbers
↔ Despite the pickup in bearish fundamental news there may still be a chance at a technical bounce back from bird flu panic but the BB and weights report tell us not to expect much