Corn – Yield raised 0.5 bu, carryout slightly lower at 2.057, fund buying vs cash selling resumes
↔Carryout was lowered 16 mil bu which is a fairly small change, yield was raised 0.5 bu to 183.6, that was offset by USDA raising ethanol and exports, production +39 mil bu, demand +55 mil bu
↑ Overnight added support and has been the best buyer all week, going back to 2 main issues now:
↑ We will expect fund short covering to continue at a slow pace
↓ Once harvest starts in full force a large portion of the fund buying will be offset with cash selling
↔Yesterday’s report may have raised the price range slightly but not the overall sideways picture
Beans – Yield unchanged, crush raised, 10 mil bu decline in total carryout to 0.550
↑ Like corn, a total carryout decline of 10 mil bu raises the expected trading range slightly but does not suggest longer term changes to the pattern we have seen recently
↑ China and fund buying is expected to continue slowly, funds are still short 83% of record
↓ Also like corn, cash selling is likely to pick up once harvest gets underway at full speed
↑↓ US beans are currently cheaper to China over the next 30 days but then BRA beans go back to being lower cost days 31 – 120, many reasons have been attributed to China’s recent pickup in buying of US beans but we have to think this current price advantage is by far #1
Wheat – Carryout left unchanged, exports strong at 475K, 5 of the last 6 weeks exports have improved
↑ Exports should be the #1 focus in wheat and have improved to a slightly strong the last 6 weeks
↔ In a reversal of the recent trend the higher US price may be helping to lift overseas wheat as well
↔There are no weather related risks seen in the 15 day forecast, in fact rains are expected to improve next week for most HRW areas while remaining slightly above average temps
Cattle – Bids move up to 182 in KS, still no trade reported, does this mean we may see 183?
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -0.18 select +1.26 packer BE at 191.40, packer cushion $10.45
↑ Bids moved up to 182 in KS yesterday (last week average 180.95), there were no reported trades at that level which added support on thoughts the cash trade may end up being 183
↑ Short term packer profits above $10 still support ideas for a strong cash trade this week
↓ Longer term BB is still grinding lower, it did see a bounce yesterday but that only recovered from fresh 4 month lows, much more is needed to suggest a turnaround