Corn – Ethanol/exports both strong, the very slow grind higher continues, next resistance at 450
↑ Ethanol and exports were solid to strong again this week, keeping light weekly support going
↔ Yesterday’s spike higher was pulled back but overall the slow grind higher is still on track
↓ Next chart resistance is a 6 month downtrend line at 450, stronger resistance than previous levels
↑ Pre buying of the acreage report is still expected, even if that pre buying is somewhat slow
↔ Open interest has moved up 43K this week, this at the same time funds are likely still short covering,
this heavily points towards cash selling and likely larger scale cash selling than most are mentioning
Beans – Exports were moderate, funds are likely covering shorts, cash selling just as active as corn
↓ Exports were moderate which is neutral fundamentally, but some speculators may have been looking
for an improvement after seeing an 8 AM sale Wednesday, could cause a 1 – 2 day setback
↔ US beans delivered to China are still $1.10 over the price of ARG beans to China
↑ It is expected that funds are covering bean shorts just like corn, even expecting higher acreage it is
still the end of the month and reason to exit near record shorts before weather is #1 influence
↑ Like corn, despite the choppy trade the over all trend is a slow grind higher for beans
Wheat – Day to day overseas influence may soon end, possibly even next week
↔ After seeing over a month of near to-the-minute price influence from overseas wheat trade we may
now see that end as we get closer to the acreage report
↓ Trade is likely to focus more on pre buying acreage and also on what HRW weather looks like
following the report with active moisture (snow) being seen for many HRW areas right now
Cattle – BB slightly higher again, weights up 3 lbs now 19 lbs over last year, cash trade up $2 - $4
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +0.29 Select +1.02 packer BE at 196.04, packer cushion $10.19
↑ BB was up slightly, it wasn’t much but does ease some concerns after seeing 2 sideways days
↑ Cash trades have been +$2 to +$4 this week, futures and cash now priced at the same level
↓ Cattle weights were up 3 lbs and are now 19 lbs over last year, that report wasn’t quite as bearish as
feared but still enough to cause a market with strong cash news to stay in the range and trade sideways
↔ Placements on today’s COF reports are expected at 106.4%, again that is misleading with February
having an extra day for leap year and weather issues in late January causing some placements to be
moved to February, it remains highly unlikely that this Placements number will change cattle long term