Warmer Temops On The Way

Corn – Warmer temps in the 7 day outlook may, next trade attention is on the June 28th report

↑ Warmer temperatures in the 7 day outlook may give support as the first weather “scare” although most of these warmer temperatures also come with moderate rains

↑ Attention is likely to turn to the June 28th quarterly stocks and acreage report, this may add some support from trade anticipating some lost acreage due to spring rains

↑ July is seeing the best support which is likely from funds buying back shorts and rolling them out

↔ There are supportive factors yet each comes with a “but”, temps are warm but there are also rains, acreage might be lowered but the planting pace report all spring suggests it won’t be lowered much

Beans – BRA tax levels back to where they started, light China buying continues, focus now on acreage

↓ The BRA senate rejected the Gov’t tax decision which now suggests taxes go back to how they were

↑ China has been a light 8 AM buyer 3 times, so far the total is still just moderate unless we see more

↔ Like corn, next major attention is likely to turn to weather and the June 28th acreage report, trade may expect a few more lost bean acres than corn but we won’t see estimates until next week

↔ We will see if today’s weekly exports see an improvement, that was the expectation from the BRA tax story and recent China buying in the first place

Wheat – USDA did not raise production numbers as much as expected and lowered estimates on RU

↔ USDA did not raise production as much as expected yesterday

↑ While headlines out of Russia remain tough to decipher, the USDA lowered their own estimates for the RU crop by 4 MMT, typically trade relies more on estimates from the country the grain is grown in

↓ Day session focus should shift back to harvest which is now well under way, looking for yield reports

Cattle – First NE cash trade 190 (190.56 last week), BB took a step back, most factors still neutral

↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -0.61 Select -1.69 packer BE at 195.75, packer cushion $10.62

↔ First NE cash trade was 0.50 lower but not a bad start on a week with a +25K showlist

↔ Yesterday’s BB eased back but for now still looks to be an overall grind higher

↔ Most factors early this week continue to suggest a sideways trend for a while, BB is still moving higher but much slower than it was before so an active uptrend in cash is not expected

↔ We will see what we get for additional cash bids today, trade is factoring in steady levels