US soybean crush may not offset export concerns.

USDA's monthly soybean crush report showed 177.7 million bushels of usage in April. Though it was over the 175.5 trade estimate we hesitate to call it supportive. This run was -4.9% from last year. There were a few plants with down days in April so a lower pace was already expected. However, this was even lower than the prior NOPA report for April, -4.2%.

Perceptions of US soybean crush have moved from wildly bullish to now only slightly supportive. Our year to date pace slips to +3.8% from last year. USDA's whole-year goal is +4.0%. The remainder of the year needs to run +4.4%. To be clear, April was an anomoly. We'll go right back to the prior +2% to +10% pace in the remaining months. But that “overage vs. USDA” has now been reigned in. A +4% to +7% remaining pace would imply anywhere from -3 million bushels to +19 vs. USDA. Given the slow old and new crop export pace, the lack of offset from crush is a concern.

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