US soybean condition ratings hold this week. Corn falls 1%.

Corn ratings were off -2% over the prior week, now 63% good/excellent. This was on the -1% trade expectation. For this week corn is rated as #15 out of 38 years.

For corn, ratings at this time of year show some level of accuracy for yield modeling. This week's rating can explain 56% of final yields. This week's rating would imply +1.7% from starting trend. Yield would be 184.0 bpa vs. USDA's 181.0 trend view. USDA in August was at 183.1.

Soybean ratings were unchanged this week at 65% good/excellent. The trade expectation was -2% given both seasonally normal declines as well as last week's dryness. This is a stout rating for this time of year, tied for #7 out of 38 prior years.

Ratings models are picking up in accuracy at this time of year. Today's number would imply soybean yields are currently +3.9% from USDA's starting 52.0 bpa yield, 54.0. USDA's August yield estimate was 53.2.

The second 2024/25 winter wheat planting estimate was released. USDA suggested last week's 2% pace was moved to only 6% complete over the past seven days. That was under the trade's 8% expectation. This is on the 6% average pace noted over the prior five years.

USDA reported spring wheat harvest increased from last week's 70% pace to now 85% complete. This was over the 83% trade expectation. It is also just over the 83% five year average pace.

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