Corn – Funds cover 23K shorts, Dec still pricing in a yield increase next Monday, spill over pressure
↑ Funds cover 23K shorts again on the COT report, now short 295K or 83% of record shorts
↓ December futures are still pricing in a yield increase from trend line 181 to now closer to 183.5
↓ Wheat is also adding some spill over pressure with overseas near yearlong lows
↔Exports have improved recently but not yet to the level of adding additional support
↔Yield changes are common on the August crop report, acreage changes are typically in September
Beans – Funds sell 15K, trade also pre pricing in a yield increase and possibly lower exports
↔Weather maps show general light rains but no significant systems, also a cool down for many areas
↓ Funds sold 15K putting them back to being short 179K or 96% of record
↓ Current price levels suggest that trade is also looking for a yield increase for beans on next week’s report, likely pricing in current yield of 52.0 going up to around 53
↔Traders may even be expecting exports to be lowered next week, recent exports have improved the last 3 weeks but that comes after 18 weeks of mostly disappointing exports
Wheat – Overseas back to near yearlong lows, funds light sellers of 2K, recent exports poor again
↓ Overseas wheat trade last night moved back near yearlong lows, likely expecting Russia to raise yield expectations again as they have been slowly doing for 3 weeks now
↔Funds were light sellers of 2K, they have been smaller traders of wheat at 48% of record shorts
↓ After a streak of 3 weeks where exports looked to be improving they have fallen back to disappointing numbers the last 4 weeks, it’s possible USDA may lower exports next week
Cattle – NE finished last week trading cash at 196 ($1.50 lower), KS/TX talk was $2.50 lower
↔Friday’s PM BB was choice +0.98 Select -0.29 packer BE at 193.97, packer cushion $3.77
↓ Cash prices stepped back on Friday with NE $1.50 lower and talk of KS/TX at $2.50 lower
↓ Futures trade has flipped around back to being on the overly cautious side, if we assume an average cash trade last week of $2 lower then futures are still priced $3.50 under that level
↔Funds were buyers of 13K through last Tuesday but moved back to the sidelines the rest of the week
↔Boxed beef is still not giving a clear sign of direction, it would be best to sum up the last 2 weeks as sideways and choppy, packer profits are at a net loss level unless BB recovers again