Corn – Yesterday’s report lowered carryout 50 mil bu, slightly less than expected, July support 438½
↔Yesterday’s report lowered carry out by 50 million bushel while trade was expecting carryout to fall by 70 million bushel, a friendly report just not quite as friendly as trade had expected
↑ Chart support for July is at 438 ½, this has been solid support which is held for 3 weeks
↔Most attention should now turn over to weather maps where the 1 - 5 day map shows active rains over planting areas while the 6 - 10 day offers a significant clearing for planting progress
↔The recent 438 ½ to 454 range for July is likely to continue until some larger factor changes
↔We'll find out today if recent selling shows up on the COT report (funds) otherwise it was cash selling
Beans – The report raised carryout 25 mil bu, trade reacted as if expecting worse, CONAB mostly quiet
↔The report raised carryout 25 mil bushel and trade reacted as if they had expected a larger increase
↔CONAB made almost no change to the BRA crop, lowering from 146.858 to 146.552, given the small change it is likely that trade will assume only small changes going forward
↓ The overall trend is still clearly lower, if July takes out yesterday's low of 1163 ¾ then we can assume that the lower trend is continuing
↔The first bean planting number should be out on Monday with trade expecting larger weather map influence two weeks from now
Wheat – Despite the carry out being raised more than expected the overall trend is still higher
↑ Carryout was raised more than expected yesterday and futures did set back but are still inside the upwards trend on the chart, July would have to take out yesterday's low of 563 for that to change
↔Most focus should now be on HRW weather which has a solid rainfall forecast on the 1 – 5 day map
Cattle – Cash trades a bit stronger than expected, NE steady to $2 lower, KS/TX quiet so far
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +0.14 Select -0.87 packer BE at 188.44, packer cushion $4.32
↑ Yesterday’s weights report dropped the dressed steers by 1 pound, not a major number but does end a 7 week streak of seeing weights trending higher
↔Cash trades in NE traded $2 lower as trade likely expected but there were some steady cash trades as well which was surprisingly strong
↓ BB moved lower again yesterday which now has packer profits in the slightly negative area around $4
↔Most news right now suggests sideways and choppy trade, BB is not strong enough to suggest a rally and bird flu headlines have cooled off to limit the downside we have been seeing lately