Corn – No signs of fund short covering yesterday, trade prepares for bearish numbers tomorrow
↔ No sign of fund short covering yesterday, in fact after a -11K OI on Monday, yesterday was +28K
↔ A +28K OI does not mean we saw fund selling but it strongly suggests they weren’t covering shorts
↓ The USDA Outlook Board numbers are out tomorrow, analysts own estimates for 2024 are for
acreage down 3.0 mil and a final carryout at 2.493
↔ Again, these are just rough estimates so it is unlikely that we will see a major reaction but most
analysts’ estimates on new crop carryout suggest the high $3’s or very low $4’s, not supportive
↔ Ethanol will be expected moderate again this week, close to last week’s 1033K
Beans – Analysts’ estimates for 2024 carryout are starting at 0.420, USDA likely loft tomorrow as well
↓ Analysts’ average estimate for 2024 carryout start out at 0.420, a number that would suggest a final
November price close to $10, acreage expected to be +3.1 million
↓ We shouldn’t expect a major reaction on tomorrow’s numbers but a continued grind lower is likely
↓ Overnight made new 3 year lows last night posting a new low at 1175 ¾
↓ Exports tomorrow will be expected poor again, similar to last week’s 387K
↔ There is no sign from funds lately, neither buying nor selling in beans
Wheat – Overseas wheat made new 3 year lows last night, overnight US wheat is following
↓ Overseas made new 3 year lows last night, pulling KC and MN also to new 3 year lows last night
↓ CHI wheat has maintained a better support than the other 2 wheat markets but is likely to see
bearish numbers from the USDA on tomorrow’s Outlook Board meeting
↔ Exports have been on the low end of moderate lately like last week’s 350K
Cattle – Packer profits back under $2 suggests that packers will likely try to hold back cash bids
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -1.81 select -1.72 packer BE at 183.38, packer cushion $1.72
↓ Yesterday’s BB was down enough to take packer profits under $2 which means we should expect
them to put the most effort they can towards keeping cash bids low this week
↔ Futures are still pricing in $1.50 higher cash trade this week, if cash trade’s are even steady than it
would suggest futures could pull back and another $1 - $2
↔ Fund activity has been quiet since Thursday and fundamental news is not helping add support