Corn – Overnight followed yesterday’s surprise lack of pre buying, small spill over possible from cattle
↓ Yesterday saw a surprising lack of pre report buying and may have continued to see cash selling
↓ Overnight trade likely followed yesterday’s surprising setback, we will see if funds buy after 8:30
↔ A pickup in cash selling could be due to some suggesting a “what if acres are raised” scenario,
historically speaking with price down significantly from last year, that scenario is unlikely
↔ Thursday’s report is known for causing active market movements, over 15 years 9 of those were
higher moves at an average move of 18 cents, 6 moves were lower by an average of 17 cents
Beans – Also not seeing as much pre buying as expected, 90% of focus to shift to the US next week
↓ Lack of pre report buying while still seeing cash selling is the likely cause of yesterday's small setback
↔ Following Thursday's report we should see most of trade’s attention shift over to US news stories
and attention quickly turn towards planting weather
↔ Thursday’s report volatility is also expected in beans, in the last 15 years beans have been higher 10
times at an average move of 29 cents, 5 have been lower with an average move of 28 cents
↔ More fund short covering is expected ahead of the report even though it seemed to slow yesterday
↔ Exports tomorrow will be expected and neutral, around 500K
Wheat – Still seeing some overseas influence but most attention will turn to the US next week
↓ Overseas wheat is giving back some of the recent gains, US is still following but not as aggressively
↔ Like beans, we should expect at least 70% of attention in wheat to turn back to US conditions with
the prime focus being on HRW weather forecasts
↓ Exports tomorrow will likely be expected poor, under 300K
Cattle – Panic bird flu selling yesterday, cooler heads today? BB sideways to slightly lower
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +0.20 Select -1.70 packer BE at 194.10, packer cushion $6.02
↔ There were no updates to bird flu headlines, given that no flu has been found in beef cattle and it is
mostly linked to older dairy cattle, will cooler heads prevail today for a bounce back from panic?
↓ While a bounce back from panic is expected first, a larger and more fundamental issue of BB starting
a slow grind lower is more concerning long term and could begin to see a slow downtrend in cattle
↔ The lower BB looks to just be starting, not a major issue yet but does have packer profits at $6
↔ If there is a chart support area it would be the 100 day MA at 176.45 and yesterday’s low of 176.40
↑↓ We can expect some recovery from yesterday's panic selling then go back to BB offering guidance