Corn – Exports expected at least slightly strong over 1100K, last 2 weeks were 1808K and 1432K
↓ Traders appear concerned that ethanol and exports are about to slow putting on a slight bearish bias
↑ The last 2 weeks of corn exports were strong at 1808K and 1432K, today may continue that trend
↔ Fair value for March is at 475 which is where March continues to gravitate to
↓ Open interest continues to fall drastically, some of that may be longs in corn who are choosing to exit
instead of take their trade into 2024 contracts, could also be cash sellers doing the same
Beans – Trade expects strong exports and more 8 AM announcements, we will see weekly sales today
↓ There is a slight easing seen overnight as some traders may be easing expectations of weekly sales
↔ There are rumors that China has recently bought 12 cargos of US beans, so far 8 AM announcements
have confirmed 2 cargos, this expectation of more sales is helping to keep Jan 55 cents over fair value
↓ ARG in the 10 day forecast has northern areas seeing rain days 1 – 5 and southern areas see rains
days 6 – 10, for BRA there are solid/wide spread coverage of rains days 1 – 5 and moderate rains 6 – 10
↔ Of the 3 recent factors that have supported beans, now: 1) Weather – certainly improved, trade will
want to see more 2) bean meal – backed off for a week straight 3) China – still high hopes for exports
Wheat – Continued talk that China has recently come in to purchase US HRW wheat or will soon
↔ Support seen this week was mostly on expectations that we will soon see confirmation that China
bought HRW wheat out of the US, we will see if any of that is confirmed on today’s weekly sales report
↔ So far there have been no 8 AM confirmations of China buying
↔ Unlike beans, wheat is affordable to China so rumors are easier to believe in this market
Cattle – Comeback support from Monday has been seen but news is not looking positive yet
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -1.14 select -2.26 packer BE at 178.16, packer cushion $1.18
↑ Traders continue to bounce the cattle market back from Monday’s overly tough selling
↓ BB is still trending sideways to a slight bearish bias, no sign of a recovery there yet
↓ While Monday’s fast selling in feeder futures may have been overdone, the cash feeder index IS
falling quickly this week ( -$13) now suggesting the bounce back may have been overdone
↔ There are still many speculative buyers in this market ready to add support but the fundamentals
aren’t on the side of buying, cash feeders lower, cash fats steady/lower, BB steady/lower