Corn – Now 2 days in a row of quiet fund trade, today’s ethanol likely expected strong
↑ Today’s ethanol report is expected strong like last week’s 1054K
↑ Funds have been on the sidelines and corn for 2 days now, this could encourage some smaller buyers
to step in and who have been holding off until the fund selling slowed
↔ It will be important to see tomorrow’s exports over 1000K to suggest that last week’s recovery to
1271K was not a one week deal but instead a lasting improvement
↔ First chart resistance will be around 460, more aggressive resistance would be expected at 470
Beans – SA maps slightly drier, like corn recent fund selling looks to have slowed
↑ Morning SA maps were slightly drier again this morning especially on the 1 to 5 day for BRA
↑ Fund selling looks to have slowed, although open interest continues to rise it now looks like the new
positions entering this market are small speculative buying instead of fund selling or fund short covering
↔ Exports tomorrow need to maintain 700K or higher to look supportive like last week’s 783K
↑ ARG maps continue to be dry for all 10 days of the forecast, if we remember back to last year we
know that this is more supportive for soybean meal that it is for soybeans
Wheat – Has seen funds on the sidelines the longest, anticipating strong exports tomorrow
↑ Wheat saw the largest increase in exports last week so we may see some pre-buying of tomorrow’s
export report especially if some feel it will be as strong as last week’s 707K
↔ Funds have been on the sidelines longer for wheat than they have for corn/beans
↔ Like corn, wheat is approaching pre-report lows which would be around 610 for March CHI
Cattle – BB higher again encouraging moderate buying, futures now factoring in a $1 higher cash trade
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +2.99 select +1.80 packer BE at 187.34, packer cushion $14.10
↑ BB continues higher and also continues to be the #1 driver of cash/futures
↑ BB now has packer profits at $14, strong enough to assume packers will pay $1 higher this week
despite the +11K showlist, futures currently have a $1 higher cash trade pre-priced in
↔ No cash bids have been seen yet and if it is going to turn out higher this week it is likely that bids
may hold off until tomorrow or even Friday
↑ Speculators have been quick to buy small pullbacks that have been seen early most mornings