Weekly export sales today cover Fri 4/26 – Thu 5/2 activity.
The US pricing advantage over Brazil, when including shipping costs, is now removed.
Sales of 889,185 tonnes were reported. For this specific week, this was the best sale in 12 weeks. It continues now three weeks of better than expected sales. The trade estimate was 600,000 – 1,100,000.
USDA’s current 2.100 billion bushel goal for the year would be -2% from the five year average pace. Our year to date sales are -4% from average. To meet USDA’s goal remaining sales need to run +24% vs. the five year average. We have three weeks of sales which have not followed the prior pattern. If this continues, which we doubt, the trade may ease its concern over sales. However, the remainder of the year still needs to run +24% from the five year average to meet USDA's goal. Only 3 of the past 16 weeks have met that goal. If sales “improve” to even with last year we'll miss USDA's goal by 33 million bushels. If they improve to +20% the miss is 5 million bushels.