Corn – Overnight preparing for early fund selling, do other traders add support again later on?
↓ Overnight is preparing to see fund selling to start the day just as we have seen most of 2 weeks
↔ The 2nd half of yesterday saw support as some traders sided with the analysts estimates for Friday’s
report which would suggest a bounce to 480 - 490, we will see if that happens again today
↑↓ Who will be right on Friday? Is it the aggressive fund selling setting price at a level that assumes
100 – 150 mil bu carryout increase or analysts looking for a 37 mil bu decline?
↔ Choppy trade is likely the next 2 days as traders pick which side they want to be on ahead of Friday
↑ Ethanol has been strong the last 2 weeks and may be expected strong again today (1000K+)
Beans – Much the same question as corn but also adding in a solid SA weather forecast
↔ Everything mentioned above for corn also applies for the beans, fund is selling has price and level
assuming a 30- 40 mil bu carryout increase, analysts are looking for a 3 mil bu decline in carryout
↓ There continues to be an underlying slight bearish bias due to solid SA weather maps
↔ Trade may also remain cautious over what this week’s exports could look like as last week’s exports
were extremely poor at 202K
↔ Most of this week’s trade may not matter much by the time we see Friday’s report, any higher or
lower move seen all this week could be more than removed once we see Friday’s carryout numbers
Wheat – Talk Egypt and Jordan are back in for buying overseas wheat, spilling some support to US
↑ Some support seen on talk that Egypt and Jordan are back in for buying overseas wheat, that likely
spilled some support over to CHI wheat which was just enough to reach the old trading range
↔ Like corn/beans, trade may remain cautious over tomorrow’s weekly export report given that last
week was very poor at 136K
Cattle – NE road closures have slowed slaughter slightly bringing in light support to futures
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +1.33 select +3.47 packer BE at 172.40, packer cushion -$0.15
↑ NE road closures slowed slaughter slightly Monday and yesterday which added light support to the
futures market, we will see if cash bids follow the futures support
↔ Let’s keep in mind that this week is a 20K showlist week and may be tough to see higher bids
↔ BB still recovering, now to the point it can be called stabilized, not yet to the point we can start
assuming higher cash bids as gross packer profits are still slightly in the negative
↔ We will see what we get for cash bids today, futures are priced at $2.50 under last week’s cash