Corn – Exports expected moderate around 1000K, carryout still suggests room for a bounce
↔Exports are expected to be moderate around 1000K
↑ Monday’s USDA carryout of 2.073 still justifies a bounce, by itself it suggests that a bounce to 420 is possible although we may not see a bounce that far if some traders expect another yield increase
↓ Another factor limiting the fundamental bounce to 420 is the major increase in cash selling that will now be expected at any level over 400, a move higher may slow drastically at any level over $4 now
↔Funds have been quiet this week on short covering, possible that light covering was seen yesterday
Beans – Exports expected strong 1200K, exports have been improving for weeks adding some support
↑ Exports are expected strong today of 1200K+, exports have improved 4 weeks in a row lately
↔If exports continue strong or improve further it may start to be enough to see at least some better support, the most likely day of the week for bean support may start being Thursday
↓ Active cash selling will be expected near 1000, it’s a round number target to aim for moving old crop
↔On a much longer term outlook there is reason to expect grain prices could move sideways for years, while that seems an exaggeration call in with details on why this may be true
↔Fund short covering has been limited in beans although some light covering possible yesterday
Wheat – Exports expected moderate around 350K, Russian attack headlines on Ukraine ports
↔Exports are expected moderate around 350K, unlike corn/beans the world wheat price is falling which hasn’t made US wheat look cheaper in the export market despite being at yearlong lows
↔Overseas was off the lows by a fraction last night, nowhere near looking like a bounce
↑ Dec CHI has been finding support around 550 in the last month, starting to look sideways there
↑ Overnight support likely coming from the Russian attack on Ukraine ports late yesterday
Cattle – BB lower but not seeing fund trade has caused other traders to narrow the cash/futures gap
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -2.05 Select -0.11 packer BE at 195.38, packer cushion $7.93
↑ Not seeing fund selling so far this week has caused better general support and for trade to narrow the cash/futures gap, as of yesterday’s close the futures were still priced about $2.50 under cash
↔BB was lower yesterday which maintains an overall sideways look, it continues to see bounces then takes those bounces away, a sideways BB suggests a mostly sideways cash/futures market
↔The feeder index has fallen drastically in the last 2 weeks but leveled off over the last 3 days now