Corn – Spill over pressure last night from beans/wheat, ethanol expected slightly poor
↓ Beans and wheat offering light spill over pressure to corn, taking March to the low end of the range
↓ Ethanol ran poor earlier in the year, then returned to moderate, now running just slightly poor again,
all this is reason to expect USDA to lower ethanol 25 mil bu on the Jan crop report
↑ We haven’t seen 8 AM sales recently but the last 2 weeks of improved exports still raises the support
level to around 480 when that level used to be 475 or just under
↔ We will want to watch for headlines for votes on ethanol to qualify a sustainable aviation fuel
Beans – ARG devalued the peso and has plans to eliminate export taxes, SA weather still solid
↓ A headline late yesterday stated that ARG is going to sharply devalue the peso and will look to
gradually eliminate export taxes, both factors encouraging more exports out of ARG
↔ Even if we see larger exports out of ARG it would not likely make as large of a difference as a crop
size change for BRA but is still worth watching and is at least still slightly bearish
↓ Morning 10 day weather maps still looked quite solid with active rains for ARG days 1 to 5 and active
rains for BRA days 6 to 10, tough to see any level completely missing out on rain in the 10 day forecast
↑ If beans continue to setback we will expect active support again around 1300
Wheat – Easing back from another headline trade seen adding support yesterday
↓ A slight cooling off after yesterday’s buying which was tied to headlines that Tunisia and Algeria made
sizable wheat purchases yesterday from France and the Black Sea
↔ Exports have recently been solid and will likely continue to be the #1 guide going forward
↔ It is starting to look like the new level March C is gravitating to is just above 610
Cattle – BB improved for a 2nd day, no large-scale cash bids for fat cattle yet, feeder index -2.32
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +2.35 select -0.88 packer BE at 175.08, packer cushion $4.10
↑ BB was higher for a 2nd day in a row which was enough to encourage moderate speculative buying
↔ We will see if BB is higher again today, it is been over 3 weeks since seeing 3 days higher in a row
↓ The feeder index was -2.32, still supplying light resistance to the feeder market
↔ If BB can sustain a lasting rally than it would likely be enough to start a small recovery and futures as
BB is still the #1 influence on cattle trade
↔ Have not seen a fat cattle cash bid yet, will be watching for that this morning